The White House has drawn up something of a “naughty and docile” NATO list as the Trump administration looks for ways to punish allies who refused to support the Iran war, writes Politico.com.
The effort, which officials have been working on ahead of NATO chief Mark Rite’s visit to Washington this month, includes an overview of member contributions to the alliance and their tiering, according to three European diplomats and a U.S. defense official who has been briefed on the plan.
It is the latest sign that the president Donald Trump intends to carry out his threats against allies who do not comply with his wishes. And it’s another pressure point for the increasingly fractured alliance, which has been undermined by Trump’s attacks, from his push to annex Greenland to his warning of a full withdrawal from the pact.
The Baltic states can count on special favors from the United States
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett laid out the broad plan in December. “Exemplary allies who act, such as Israel, South Korea, Poland, increasingly Germany, the Baltic states and others, will receive our special favor,” he said. On the other hand, “the allies who are still unable to contribute to the collective defense will face the consequences”, stated P. Hegseth.
The US administration is keeping all the details under wraps while options for action are being planned, according to the information provided. Also, officials have provided little clarity on exactly what that favor or consequences might be.
“They don’t seem to have any specific ideas … when it comes to punishing bad allies,” said one European official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. “Moving troops is one option, but it mostly punishes the US itself, doesn’t it?” this possibility was allowed by a European official.
The White House made its displeasure with allies clear. “While the United States has always been there for our so-called allies, the countries we protect with thousands of troops have not been there for us throughout Operation Epic Fury,” White House spokeswoman Ann Kelly said, referring to the Pentagon’s name for the operation. “President Trump has made his thoughts clear about this unfair dynamic, and as he said, the United States will remember,” Kelly said.
NATO did not respond to a request for comment.
Which countries would gain and lose from moving US troops?
There are some other alternatives to moving American troops out of Europe, but any potential plan would likely involve moving them from one country to another, but that shift could prove expensive and time-consuming.
It is unclear which countries fall into which category and whether M. Rite knows about it. Romanians and Poles could be among the biggest beneficiaries as they remain in the president’s good graces and will welcome more US troops. The Polish government, one of NATO’s biggest defense spenders, already covers almost all the costs of hosting the 10,000 American troops stationed there. And Romania’s recently expanded Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, which the country allowed the US to use for its air war in Iran, has room for even more American troops.
Hegsett initially used allied rhetoric to refer to NATO partners who had increased defense spending in line with the alliance’s five percent targets championed by Trump. Officials also referred to it in the National Defense Strategy published in January.
The Defense Department will “prioritize cooperation and engagement with exemplary allies who contribute to our collective defense,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “In doing so, we will empower these allies as they step up advocacy for our shared interests, while also strengthening incentives for other allies to contribute,” the statement said.
Two European officials familiar with the plan say the concept could give the US the ability to withdraw troop deployments, joint exercises or military sales from “bad” allies and transfer them to “good” allies. The third diplomat indicates that P. Hegseth has used the term “exemplary ally” in meetings with NATO members.
This would offer Trump more tools to distinguish between NATO members who supported US efforts in Iran, such as ending Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and allowing the use of bases, from those who did not.
While Spain and other allies such as Britain and France either rejected or suspended requests for US aid, Romania and several smaller countries allowed the US to use their air bases. Bulgaria also quietly supported American logistics in the Middle East.
Spain was already in trouble with the Trump administration last year for scrapping NATO’s 5% defense spending target at the alliance’s Hague summit. In contrast, officials have praised the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia – and Poland for consistently ranking at the top of the bloc in terms of military spending.
What does US President Trump expect from NATO countries?
“President Trump has rightly made it clear that he expects allies and partners to step up and help secure this critical waterway in the Middle East,” Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby told NATO allies earlier this month at a virtual meeting of defense ministers, which Hegseth declined to attend.
But there is little precedent for taking such steps to punish allies, and the views are already facing resistance on Capitol Hill.
“It is unhelpful that America’s leaders are mocking our alliances,” Sen. Roger Wicker said Tuesday before a hearing on U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region. “We need to be clear about the many political, strategic and moral benefits that a country receives from its alliances,” the senator said.
And some former officials doubt that the Trump administration is equipped to manage another existential crisis in the alliance.
“Trump and his team are busy trying to get out of a quagmire of their own making,” said Joel Linnainmäki, a former Finnish civil servant who worked on his country’s 2023 NATO accession. “The administration probably doesn’t have enough room to open another hostile front with Europe while the war continues,” the former official said.
