El Niño to dent India’s wind, hydropower output: study

India’s power system stands to be strained more by the developing El Niño than that of any other country, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). They project that weaker wind and hydropower output, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could open a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terawatt-hour) over a period of one year to June 2027.

Set against India’s total electricity generation of about 1,846 billion units in 2025-26, the shortfall in CREA models is small or under 1% of annual output. Non-fossil sources supplied 29.2% of that generation. The group’s concern is less the size of the gap than how it is filled. CREA’s projected median output puts it at 17.7 TWh and its most severe at 24 TWh — one TWh is a billion units of electricity —  and says the likeliest outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which will release an estimated 17 million tonne of carbon dioxide. It stresses that these are scenario projections, not forecasts.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed last month that El Niño conditions had emerged over the equatorial Pacific and were expected to strengthen through the monsoon. It has forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of a deficient season.

June rainfall closed with an all-India rainfall deficit of about 40%, the fifth-lowest for June since 1901, and the cumulative shortfall stood at 20% below normal by July 6. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said rainfall in July is likely to stay below normal across most of the country.

Electric generation capacity

India entered the season with a record electric generation capacity. As of March 31, non-fossil installed capacity reached 283.46 GW — 150.26 GW of solar, 56.09 GW of wind, 51.41 GW of large hydro and 8.78 GW of nuclear — after a record 44.6 GW of solar and 6 GW of wind were added in 2025-26. Coal remains the largest single source of power, at about 42% of installed capacity, though coal generation fell 3.69% over the year. Peak demand touched 270.82 GW on May 21, according to official data.

CREA, which reports that solar now meets 24% of daytime demand, argues that storage could have absorbed more of it. Grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year to keep coal plants running — waste that CREA, citing energy analytics firm Ember, says roughly 10 GWh of battery storage could have averted.

India must “move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades”, said Nandikesh Sivalingam, CREA’s director, so that clean energy can meet future demand surges. The country is lining up around 130 GW of new coal capacity that provides on-demand power and helps buffer against record peaks such as in May.