The text of the framework agreement between the USA and Iran is now known. A high-ranking US government official made it public after several media outlets had already circulated an earlier version of the text. The agreement is set to come into force with immediate effect – after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian signed it overnight. However, some questions remain unanswered in the 14 points.
What do the points of the published text regulate?
Right from the start, the text explicitly states an “immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon”. Both sides and their allies should refrain from further acts of war. Which allies are meant remains unclear.
The text also refers to further negotiations at various points. A final agreement should be reached within 60 days – although the period can be extended.
The lifting of the mutual naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz is also quite clearly regulated. Iran should clear potentially laid sea mines in the strait within 30 days of signing.
For its part, however, the USA should not only lift the blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. The US side also agrees to suspend sanctions on Iranian energy trade from the signing of the framework agreement until they are lifted. After a final agreement, all sanctions against Iran should be lifted.
What is not regulated in the text?
The very first paragraph also calls for an end to the war between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. It obliges the “allies” of the USA and Iran to comply with it. A withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon – as Iran has repeatedly called for – is not in the text.
There are a number of open questions: What happens, for example, if allies of the USA or Iran, such as Israel or the Lebanese Hezbollahviolate the framework agreement? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the fight against Iran and its allies in the region was not over. Israel’s army will remain in “safe zones” in the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and Syria “as long as necessary.”
There are other open questions: Will the Hezbollah militia adhere to a ceasefire as long as Israel occupies areas in southern Lebanon that have been declared “safe zones”? And how will Iran behave if the military conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah continue? Will he then make good on his threat and attack Israel?
The Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip is also one of Iran’s allies. Does the ceasefire also apply to the Gaza Strip?
There are hardly any details about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program
Questions about the Iranian nuclear program are almost completely ignored. In the agreement, the Islamic Republic reiterates its official position that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The minimum measure is a dilution of the stored highly enriched uranium under the supervision of the IAEA. According to CNN, this addition was not included in an earlier draft agreed upon by US President Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf.
Further aspects are to be clarified in a final agreement. The period of 60 days seems short. Negotiations on the 2015 nuclear deal concluded in Vienna lasted almost two years. The “Politico” portal, citing US sources, reports that Iran has already made major concessions on its nuclear program behind the scenes.
There is no explicit mention of the Iranian demand to charge fees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz only applies to the 60-day negotiation window. Iran should discuss future rules with Oman – in dialogue with other states bordering the Persian Gulf.
In addition, demands that the USA had made before the war broke out at the end of February are missing: a containment of the Iranian missile program and an end to support for regional militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
What remains unclear in the framework agreement?
The Axios portal, citing US officials, reports that Iran will receive benefits gradually if conditions are met. This is not specified in the text.
The unclearly worded services include the release of Iranian assets – according to experts, a technically and legally complicated undertaking. The US President can grant relief from sanctions with exceptions if these are justified by national security interests, explains Sascha Lohmann from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin. However, this only applies until a final agreement is reached. Then Congress would have to agree.
The success of a reconstruction fund worth at least 300 billion US dollars depends largely on the lifting of the sanctions. According to “Axios” information, the money will come from private investors from the Gulf states and Asia. The initiative is reminiscent of investment initiatives to rebuild Gaza that have not yet materialized.
Who can claim which successes?
The Strait of Hormuz, which is important for international energy trade, was open to shipping until the war began on February 28th. In response to the attack by the USA and Israel, Tehran then almost completely blocked the strait. Iran can now tie the reopening to concessions.
Suspending oil sanctions against Iran during further negotiations could bring the country massive additional revenue. For example, the end of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports allows the leadership in Tehran to restore interrupted supply chains.
Around 20 percent of global energy trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that oil and gas is now coming back from the Gulf region should bring a sigh of relief not only to the US government, but internationally.
