A high pressure area northwest of the continent and several low pressure areas over the Far East and Russia determine the interaction this week. Before the high pressure really takes over, a small air mass boundary will cause some harmless cloud fields on Tuesday – formed between a low off the Iberian Peninsula and the northwestern high. It will clear up again in the afternoon, after which potential disruptions will largely avoid the country.
Fog, sun, and hardly a drop of rain
Monday started in many places with patches of fog that dissipated over the course of the morning and temperatures reached 11 to 14 degrees. A similar pattern follows this Tuesday: cloudy morning, increasingly clear skies in the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday are the sunniest days of the week, with hardly any clouds and a good chance of plenty of sunshine. Friday and Saturday will bring at most isolated patches of clouds, but these could occur a little more frequently on Sunday. As things stand, rain is not a serious issue for any of the models. April 2026 is likely to end far too dry – a deficit that can hardly be made up with a view to the remaining days.
From reserved to spring-like
After the subdued 12 to 13 degrees on Tuesday, milder air masses of 15 to 17 degrees will reach us from Wednesday, and 17 to 19 degrees are possible on Thursday. Friday the level remains similar at 16 to 18 degrees. At the weekend the models vary: the range for Saturday is from 13 to 20 degrees in places, individual runs even expect a little more. Similar uncertainties exist on Sunday. The trend remains mild, but how much the values actually climb depends largely on how far the milder air mass can penetrate north in the middle of the week.
Warm air is waiting, but will it arrive?
Looking beyond the weekend is frankly capricious, especially when it comes to the European model. It is currently fluctuating between a late cold snap and a change to early summer temperatures – sometimes from one run to the next. This is not uncommon for this time of year, but makes a reliable assessment difficult.
Currently, the European model suggests that after a short, less mild period between April 28th and 30th, a low off the Irish coast combined with high air pressure over southern Europe could direct warm to early summer air masses towards Luxembourg. Just one run before, the world looked completely different, when the cold air over northwest Russia was simulated directly over our regions. It remains to be seen whether the trend towards a milder scenario will continue to solidify.
The American model is more consistent and generally milder on this issue. Although there will also be cooler phases from around April 24th, this will largely keep the Russian cold air at bay. Among other things, because it repeatedly calculates a small low that will move from Portugal towards western France from April 29th and block the cold air. In the southwest of the continent there is already a base of warm air just waiting for the course to be set correctly.
