Canada’s population drops in first quarter of 2026

Canada’s population dipped by about 55,000 people in the first three months of this year, according to new numbers from Statistics Canada, which on Wednesday set the population at 41,417,056.

The 0.1 per cent drop is because of a decrease in both immigration and in births compared to deaths, the agency said.

The preliminary figures for early 2026 come months after the agency reported an overall decline in the population for last year.

There were about 20 per cent fewer permanent immigrants in Canada in the first quarter of this year compared to the same time last year, dropping to 83,149 from 104,210 in 2025.

The number of non-permanent residents dropped by more than 117,000, though Statistics Canada cautioned there may be future updates to those initial estimates due to “shifting international migration policies.”

Moreover, what the agency calls “natural increase” in population — the assumption that births will outnumber deaths — was, in fact, a decrease as 155 more people died than were born across the country in the first quarter.

The agency also wrote the drop in permanent immigrants matches with the federal government’s lower target for immigration.

These population shifts are likely a factor in recent data that shows, by some measures, Canada’s economy is shrinking. With fewer immigrants, the overall size of what economist Mikal Skuterud describes as the “economic pie” would shrink, even though a smaller population overall might mean a bigger per-person slice of that pie.

Skuterud, a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo, points out that as population has decreased in Canada, the share per person of the gross domestic product (GDP) has gone up.

“As a result of the Liberal government’s U-turn on immigration policy, GDP per-capita growth rates have turned from negative … and now it’s flat or slightly positive,” he said.