The Baltic States should discuss the possibility of a Russian invasion much more and prepare resolutely for just such a scenario in order to rule out the possibility of Ukraine’s mistake being repeated, Roman Sheremeta, head of the Department of Economics at Case University’s Weatherhead School of Management, professor of economics, said in an interview to the LETA agency during the “Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026” conference.
It is quite possible that within the next two months Putin will announce a wide mobilization, the professor says in the interview. It will no longer be a special military operation, but a full-fledged war. In that case, they can mobilize millions of people. Ukraine does not have such opportunities. Fortunately for Ukraine, it has managed to build technological capabilities that make it unbearably expensive for Russia to advance, as most of the fighting in Ukraine today can be done by drones. But other countries do not have such capabilities. For example, the Baltic States.
I have some disagreements with your foreign ministers about how vulnerable they are to Russian attacks Baltic States. I believe that they are vulnerable. And the reason is that Ukraine is no longer an achievable goal for the Russians. Putin has gotten almost everything he could from Ukraine. He can’t get anything anymore. But you can from the Baltic states.
If you look Russian propaganda channels, then they clearly talk about the fact that Russia is already at war with the Baltic states. They are already at war with Poland and other European countries. Why not make it all a real war? The Russian people would easily accept it. The Russians would be happy. That’s all Putin needs.
Many in the Baltic countries raise their eyebrows when Zelensky or another Ukrainian exaggerates the threat to the Baltic states. What do you think about it? Why does it have to be done at all?
I may be one of the culprits in this matter. For years I have been talking about the fact that we have against Russia, against Russian threats must be taken seriously. Also, right now I think NATO is at its weakest point. We magically hope that NATO Article 5 will be triggered as soon as the attack on the Baltic states takes place. But let’s just play out this scenario. What does that even mean?
Does this mean that France will suddenly send, say, 20,000 troops to the Baltic States? USAprobably won’t even get involved, they’ll just remind you that Europe betrayed the Americans in the war against Iran. If Europe did nothing then, why send us troops now? So forget about the US. But Europe has already spent so much money on Ukraine that there is not much left. So what does this Article 5 even mean? At this point it looks more like a paper tiger.
I have just spoken to the members of the Ukrainian parliament who are participating in this conference, and they also feel that many of our Baltic friends are still living in illusions, believing that they are protected against a Russian attack, because no intelligence reports show no such thing, as your foreign minister also said at the conference. But that can change in a few days.
Putin will suddenly announce a nationwide mobilization. And suddenly the Russians will have two million additional soldiers, they can mobilize the army in the next few months. We are not ready for that. Europe is not ready for this. The Baltic states are not ready for this. So I think it’s very real. And also because of this particular moment when the US has withdrawn from NATO.
We don’t even know what exactly would happen if Article 5 were to be invoked at some point, if, say, Russia attacked the Baltic states or somewhere else. I don’t think the reaction would be harsh enough. And that would actually threaten future NATO coalitions.
It’s not like I’m exaggerating just because I’m aiming for millions of clicks on social media or anything like that. This is not so. I’m a professor, I teach strategic negotiation, about which I will publish my book soon. I am an academic. What I say is the result of my analytical reflections.
From an economic point of view, Russia is not strong at all. Would mass mobilization even be possible now?
If you were to talk to people on the street in Russia, you’d see what the typical narrative is. Yes, some people complain about the economy, but most people will say that they don’t care what the economic situation is – we have been through the worst economic crisis in years, and as long as we have the great and mighty Russia, nothing else matters.
Russians value the collective Great Russian imperialist idea much more than human life. Therefore, I think that the fact that the Russian economy is experiencing difficulties is not such a big problem for those Russians who are so ideologically brainwashed that they are ready to tolerate any economic difficulties. As long as “great Russia” exists.
How do you assess the achievements of the Baltic States?
I think that the Baltic countries have been very active and taken the right measures. Politically, the Baltic states have also done the right thing, encouraging Europe to support Ukraine more strongly and encouraging it to focus more on its own defense. It’s not about not doing something. I think that the Baltic countries are doing almost everything right.
One missing piece is these narratives about the Russian threat. You know, our intelligence says it’s not happening right now, so it’s not going to happen. It’s just wishful thinking, a bit of a “la-la-la land mentality” because, as I said, if Putin will mobilize army, within a few months they will be ready to do something, to do some damage. Likewise, if they withdraw troops from the current battleground.
I think that in the Baltic countries there is a lack of discussion about such possibilities, an information campaign. Instead of dismissing all of this as just social media hype or the Ukrainian side shooting at their own, one should actually model the situation that would arise if the front line were somehow frozen and suddenly 200,000 Russian troops stood next to the Finnish-Baltic border. We have to think much faster.
What would be your message to Latvian readers?
First of all, I, as a citizen of Ukraine, was born in Ukrainebut I am also a citizen of the USA and now I spend most of my life in the USA – I would just like to thank the people of Latvia, the Baltic people for their true support for Ukraine. I don’t think we’ve ever had as many friends as you. Therefore, even when you hear that we are “shooting our own” in the above-mentioned situations, it is not done in order to scare you or cause any indignation or anger, because we are extremely grateful for what the people of Latvia have done for Ukraine.
The second thing I want to say is simple – please don’t drop the narratives that Russia is seriously considering or might consider attacking the Baltic States. Don’t dismiss it because many Ukrainians did. Members of the Ukrainian parliament, who had access to the same information as the Latvian foreign minister or President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, did not believe it was possible that Russia could actually invade.
They were wrong. Many of us were wrong. And that’s why we don’t want anyone else to make a mistake, especially for our friends to repeat the same mistake. So it’s always better to be prepared and talk about it. What are the scenarios if this happens? What are the possible situations? Of course, we can just dismiss it and say it’s warmongering or something, but I kindly encourage you not to abandon these narratives. I’m not saying they should be front and center all the time, but I want this narrative to be seriously considered.
