The visit of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves, was not fruitful Le Drian To Beirut is a new political initiative in the traditional sense, but it has opened the door to questions that go beyond its declared titles related to supporting stability and reforms, to touch on one of the most sensitive issues in the next phase: the future of the international force operating in southern Lebanon, “UNIFIL,” and the role of France In any new security arrangements that may arise as a result of negotiations between Lebanon and…Israel.
Over the course of two days, Le Drian moved between Lebanese presidents and officials, carrying a French message of support for the Lebanese state and its institutions, and stressing continued interest in… Paris The Lebanese file is at a stage that is witnessing a redrawing of regional and international balances. However, the political interpretation of the visit seemed to go beyond simply confirming the French presence, as it coincided with an international movement related to the situation in the south and the security negotiations sponsored by the United States, which prompted many to treat it as an exploratory visit aimed at collecting data and anticipating the next stage more than aiming at launching a new initiative..
According to follow-up circles, Le Drian also carried a clear message of support for the path adopted by the Lebanese state in approaching the southern situation, whether in terms of establishing a ceasefire or continuing political and diplomatic contacts aimed at containing the escalation. These circles confirm that Paris views positively the steps of the Lebanese government in coordination with the army to implement its obligations south of the Litani, and believes that maintaining the calm constitutes the basic entry point for any subsequent discussion related to security arrangements or the future of the international presence in the south..
Follow-up circles say that Paris realizes that the Lebanese file, especially in its security aspect, has become managed to a large extent through the American channel, which forces it to search for its position and role in the next stage. Hence, Le Drian’s tour of the Lebanese authorities came in an attempt to understand the directions of the possible settlement and see the Lebanese officials’ approach to the upcoming entitlements..
“UNIFIL” in the background of the discussion
But what caught the attention of political circles in… Beirut There has been increasing talk about the future of UNIFIL, especially with the approaching date for renewal of the international force at the end of this year. According to information, this issue came up in the background of the meetings and discussions held by the French envoy, amid talk about ideas being circulated in the diplomatic and international corridors about the form of the international presence in the south during the coming years..
The sources do not talk about a completed French project or a ready-made initiative, but rather about preliminary discussions and ideas being circulated, ranging from keeping the international force while introducing modifications to its mission, reducing its size and transforming it into a more specialized observation force, or enhancing the role of the Lebanese army in exchange for a gradual reduction in international deployment. These are ideas that are still under diplomatic circulation and have not yet turned into an official project on the table United Nations.
This discussion is of particular importance for France, which is one of the most prominent countries contributing to UNIFIL, and views its presence in southern Lebanon as one of the most prominent elements of its traditional influence in the Lebanese file. Therefore, some observers link Le Drian’s visit to Paris’s endeavor to explore the possibility of preserving its role in any new security formula that may result from the ongoing negotiations or understandings that are being prepared for the next stage..
In this context, observers do not rule out that Paris has already begun preparing the political base for the discussion that will be opened in the coming months about the future of the international force, especially if the ongoing negotiations succeed in installing new security arrangements on the southern border. However, French circles are keen, on the other hand, to stress that research is in the future.UNIFIL“It does not mean that there is an international decision to change or replace it, but rather it falls within the framework of periodic reviews imposed by field and political variables.”.
On the other hand, the sources confirm that the French priority remains to stabilize the calm, maintain the ceasefire, and prevent the situation from sliding further, in addition to supporting the Lebanese army and supporting the Lebanese government’s steps to establish stability in the south. As for ideas related to the future of UNIFIL, they remain part of a broader international debate whose elements have not yet matured.
Accordingly, Le Drian’s visit seems closer to a French attempt to reposition itself within the dynamic Lebanese and regional scene, at a time when the United States is advancing to the forefront of managing the most sensitive security and political files. The most prominent fact that emerged from the visit is that the discussion gradually moved from the future of the ceasefire and the southern border arrangements to the future of the international force itself, and whether the coming years will witness the continuation of UNIFIL in its current form or the birth of a new model for the international presence in southern Lebanon..
