Climatologists warn that 2026 could be one of the hottest years on record. How Euronews reportsthe cause is said to be ongoing global warming and a possible increase in climate processes.
The beginning of this year has already been marked by unusually high temperatures: the first four months are among the four warmest on record.
March 2026 was the fourth warmest March on record. The Earth’s average surface temperature last month exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.48°C.
This is evidenced by data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, writes Anadolu Agency.
According to the data, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface in March was 13.94°C.
This figure was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) and 0.53°C above the March average for the period 1991-2020.
This makes March 2026 the fourth warmest March in the world.
The warmest March remains March 2024, second is March 2025, and third is March 2016.
Climate experts predict that a powerful El Niño phenomenon could develop by the fall of this year. According to their calculations, there is approximately a 19% chance that 2026 will break all temperature records, becoming the hottest year on record.
Experts believe that a powerful El Niño could begin in the fall. According to preliminary estimates, the probability that 2026 will be the warmest year on record is about 19%.
Experts from the Carbon Brief analytical project, which studies climate change and scientific data, based on forecasts from five research groups, believe that 2026 will almost certainly be among the four warmest years. There is also a high probability that it will take second place in the ranking of the hottest years.
Temperatures are expected to gradually increase throughout the year, with maximum values likely to occur in late autumn and winter when climatic processes intensify.
El Niño is a warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects climates around the world. It can cause droughts, floods, marine heat waves and other weather anomalies.
The intensity of the phenomenon is measured by the water temperature in the Niño 3.4 zone. If the indicator exceeds the norm by more than 0.5 °C, this indicates El Niño, above 1.5 °C – a strong phase, and more than 2 °C – the so-called “super” El Niño.
According to the latest forecasts, temperatures could rise 2.2 °C above normal by September, which corresponds to the “super” El Niño scenario. Typically, the peak of such processes occurs from November to January.
If this scenario plays out, the likelihood of 2027 becoming a new record-breaking year for global temperatures increases significantly.
