The possible weakening and possible disruption of the Atlantic Ocean Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to climate change has been discussed in recent years, but the Gulf Stream off the coast of Iceland is one of its concerns. The overturning cycle transports warm seas from the south of the oceans to the north and makes the climate in Iceland as mild as it really is.
The growing alarming scientific evidence which should be at the core of #Iceland‘s concerns. Why is our media and leaders almost silent? Could become a monumental disaster within a few decades. Also for the #UK spirit #NorthernEurope. https://t.co/nj9jNVP87i
— Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson (@ORGrimsson) April 26, 2026
In a post shared by Ólafur Ragnar, he responds to a meteorologist’s post that refers to a Guardian article that appeared earlier in the month. It discusses the results of new studies that indicate that it is necessary to assume that the possible collapse of the turnover cycle is much more likely than has been assumed.
The article states that the cycle is weak and that it could slow down to the point of collapse. It would have a major impact on the weather around the world, but could make Iceland almost uninhabitable.
“These growing and alarming scientific signs should be one of Iceland’s main concerns. Why are our media and leaders virtually silent?” Ólafur Ragnar asks himself.
He warns that we could be headed for a huge disaster within a few decades.
Up to nine degrees colder in winter
Iceland’s leading climate scientists were among dozens of scientists warning Nordic ministers of the danger to the Nordic countries if the overturning cycle stops in an open letter on the Arctic Circle in 2024.
It is known from geological history that rapid changes can occur in ocean currents. Scientists warn that this risk has so far been underestimated in climate models and scientific reports.
There were indications that the overturning cycle was weakening, but it was uncertain if and when it could stop completely.
It has been said that the Northern Hemisphere could cool by one to two degrees if the overturning circulation stopped. However, the local impact would be much greater and different from one place to another. On the coast of Norway, it could thus be up to twenty degrees colder than it is now, and in Iceland, winter temperatures could be up to nine degrees lower.
The average winter temperature in Iceland is around freezing and has been rising. If the circulation system collapses, it could be around nine degrees below zero. By comparison, the average temperature in Rovaniemi, the capital of Lapland in Finland, in the Arctic Circle, is between ten and eleven degrees below zero in January according to according to the Finnish Meteorological Agency.
