Since February 28, the United States and Israel have carried out intense airstrikes in Iran. According to the human rights organization HRANA, based in the United States, more than 3,600 people have lost their lives in that country.
That figure includes the supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khameneiand many other high-ranking political and military figures, but also 165 people from a girls’ school, most of them minors. Despite the loss of leadership, the core of the Iranian political system remains intact. “There is no movement towards regime change,” American political analyst and president of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, told DW.
In response, the Iranian regime took a high-risk step: it effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, allowing its use only to a few countries. The move caused global oil prices to rise and increased pressure on the US and its allies.
The strategy paid off. Tehran achieved a ceasefire without admitting defeat. The Government can present the truce as proof that it resisted the United States and all its military power. Trump has accepted the ten point plan of Iran as a basis for negotiations. The Iranian regime has survived and bought time to try to shape the next phase under more favorable conditions.
United States: military achievements, political limits
trump has described the result as “total and complete victory,” but there are many analysts who disagree. “They have achieved some goals,” Ian Bremmer told DW. “If you analyze the damage caused to Iran’s military capabilities, its conventional ballistic capabilities and its naval capabilities, much of them have been severely diminished.” And some parts of its nuclear program have also suffered serious damage.
But the United States has also suffered losses. Iranian attacks have damaged or destroyed billions of dollars worth of radar systems and aircraft. The US reputation as a protector of Gulf allies has been severely damaged after Iran attacked its neighbors.
Furthermore, relations with Europe and the NATO They have been strained by the fact that Washington started the war without consulting its allies.
Israel: tactical advantages, long-term risks
Israel has weakened Iran’s military capabilities. It has shown that it can launch attacks far beyond its borders and continues to have strong support from the United States.
At the same time, the war has revealed some vulnerabilities. Iranian missiles put Israel’s air defenses under constant pressure, and some managed to penetrate them, killing more than 30 people.
Fawaz Gerges, from the London School of Economics, underlines to DW that Israel could emerge “much weaker” from the war. He argues that the diplomatic damage It is probably considerable, especially in its neighborhood: Gulf countries are now less likely to have closer ties with Israel.
China benefits in the long term
The United States has moved many military resources to the Middle East to protect shipping traffic near the Strait of Hormuz. This leaves fewer resources for the Indo-Pacific region, where Washington and Beijing compete for influence.
“China “It benefits not only because the United States is less focused on the Asian military environment, but also because its own allies consider the United States much less reliable,” Bremmer explains. “And that means that, by comparison, China is seen as a relatively stable player.”
Russia takes advantage of the crisis
The war has benefited Russia in several ways. Rising energy prices boosted Moscow’s revenue at a time when its budget was under pressure due to the war in ukraine. Sanctions were temporarily eased as countries sought alternative sources of oil supply.
Although prices have fallen since the ceasefire, Russia is benefiting from global attention being diverted from the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, “the US has moved much of its military capacity to the Gulf. That means that the weapons systems the Ukrainians need are simply not going to be available,” explains Bremmer.
Gulf countries: their image as safe countries in doubt
The Iranian attacks affected Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries. Billions of dollars worth of energy facilities were damaged and their sense of security was shattered.
However, some countries benefited. Saudi Arabia It avoided the Strait of Hormuz and maintained much of its oil flow through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, earning high revenues from its exports.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) rely heavily on foreign workers and investors. “90% of the UAE’s more than 10 million inhabitants are expatriates,” says Bremmer. Security fears have damaged their image as safe havens, a fundamental pillar of their economic model.
Europe, one of the losers
Rising energy prices have affected households and industry, as in many other parts of the world. Disruptions in shipping have affected trade and inflationary pressures have increased.
Traditional alliances have cracked. European governments refused to support American military operations. Some also did not grant access to airspace for offensive missions. President Trump responded by again threatening to withdraw the US from NATO, a scenario that many Europeans fear.
Diplomatic boost for Pakistan
Pakistan has played a central role in the ceasefire negotiation and now it is preparing to host new conversations.
For Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, this is a great diplomatic success. Pakistan maintains ties with both Washington and Tehran, and for weeks quietly passed messages between the two. The result has reinforced Pakistan’s role as a mediating power in the region.
