According to the report of Economy Online, quoted by ISNA, the Meteorological Organization has announced, predicting the temperature and rainfall season in the next three months (May to August): The evidence shows that this year the El Nino climate phenomenon is forming in the Pacific Ocean, which can increase the country’s autumn and winter rainfall. It is also expected that the summer rains in the southeast of the country will be less than normal.
In terms of rainfall, the country’s average rainfall in the middle of May to mid-June is expected to be normal with a tendency to be more than normal and from June to September normal, but it should be noted that the amount of normal precipitation in the summer climate in most areas of the central plateau and southwest of Iran is very little or no rain, and therefore the normal situation will not compensate for the severe lack of water in many provinces.
Forecasting the state of rainfall in the country
The prediction of the country’s rainfall using the multi-model method of the Climatology Research Institute by month is as follows:
Mid-May to mid-June 1405: The country’s average rainfall is expected to be normal with a tendency to exceed normal. Rainfall is expected to be normal in Caspian coastal provinces, northeast and parts of the east and south of the country and more than normal in other regions.
Mid-June to mid-July 1405: The average rainfall in the northwest tends to be higher than normal, and in other regions it is estimated to be in line with the long-term normal.
Mid-July to mid-September 1405: The average rainfall of the country is estimated according to the long-term normal. Monsoon rainfall in the southeast and south of the country is estimated to be less than normal.
Mid-September to mid-October 1405: It is expected that the country’s average rainfall will be in line with the long-term normal.
In terms of temperature, for almost all the forecasted months (May to September), an increase in temperature of 0.5 to 2 degrees compared to normal is expected in most regions of the country. The highest temperature increase (1 to 2 degrees) corresponds to mid-September to mid-October in the interior regions of the country and the lowest (half to one degree) in the coastal strip of the country. It is expected that the formation of heat waves in the second half of the summer of this year until the beginning of autumn will be more than normal.
According to the report of the Meteorological Organization, despite relatively adequate rainfall in Tehran, Qom and Central provinces during this spring, the significant lack of rainfall in the current water year and the effects of severe drought from last year have caused these provinces (especially Tehran and Alborz) to face a serious shortage of surface water resources and severe water stress.
Forecast of the country’s temperature situation
The details of forecasting the country’s temperature using the multi-model method by month and possibly in degrees Celsius are as follows:
Mid-May to mid-June 1405: The average temperature in the provinces located on both sides of the Zagros mountains, from the north to the south, south and southeast of the country will be normal, and other areas will be between half and one degree above normal.
Mid-June to mid-July 1405: The average temperature in parts of the east and center of the country and Golestan province is between 1 and 2 degrees above normal, the west of the country is normal and other parts of the country are predicted to be between half and one degree above normal.
Mid-July to mid-August 1405: The average temperature in the southeast of the country will be between 1 and 2 degrees and in other regions half to 1 degree above normal.
Half of August to half of September 1405: The average temperature in the provinces located in the interior of the country and the southeast of the country is between 1 and 2 degrees above normal and in other parts of the country between half and one degree above normal.
Mid-September to mid-Mehr 1405: It is expected that in the forecasted period, the highest increase in the country’s temperature will occur in the period from mid-September to mid-Mehr. During this period, the average air temperature in the coastal strip of the country will increase between half and one degree and in other areas between one and two degrees.
