The impact of the conflict in Iran on the midterm vote, the president’s approval drops below 40%. Voters dissatisfied with the economy and security
Donald Trump’s consensus drops below the 40 percent threshold and touch the low point of his second termreturning to the levels recorded afterwards the assault on Congress of January 6, 2021, one of the darkest moments of American democracy. According to the latest survey of New York Timesthe president’s approval stops at around 38-39 percent, while almost 60% of those interviewed reject his actions.
Above all, the combination of foreign policy and economics weighs heavily. The war with Irandecided together with Israel, had a direct impact on energy prices: petrol it has risen to about $4 a gallon, a dollar more than before the conflict. According to a survey Reuters/Ipsos77 percent of Americans attribute this to Trump at least part of the responsibility for the increasewith high percentages even among Republican voters.
The backlash is immediate and politically sensitive. 58 percent of respondents say they would be less likely to support candidates who support the White House line on Iran in the November midterm elections. And the Republicans’ historical advantage on the economy is also narrowing: Today the party is essentially on par with the Democrats, whereas it had a much wider margin at the beginning of the mandate.
Other surveys also confirm the trend. The approval rating recorded by Cnbc it is at the lowest level of the two mandates, with a clear worsening of its own on economic management. And the investigation Ap-Norc signals growing discontent among many of the groups that had contributed to the 2024 victory in the first place young Hispanic menincreasingly skeptical of the government’s ability to contain the cost of living.
The Trumpian base, however, remains largely faithful, but the president is losing ground between independents and Republicans not aligned with the Maga movement. It is not a physiological decline: for the first time in his second term, Trump appears vulnerable on economy and securitythe themes that had supported his return to power. And when the promise of prosperity breaks down, consensus tends to follow.
