This April 3 marked three months since Nicolás Maduro left power and Delcy Rodríguez took office as acting president.
His arrival to power has produced some institutional and political changes, but in the economic field is where the change of direction has been felt most strongly, with important reforms to laws such as the Hydrocarbons Law, which completely modified the notion of the oil business during the decades of the so-called Bolivarian Revolution. However, inflation continues to be an issue in which the Government seems to be going to repair.
For the economist and political leader José Guerra, the economic balance after Rodríguez’s arrival is favorable and he mentions the reform of the oil legislation as a step forward that opens the doors to investment “because the previous law was very limiting.”
Consider that one of the positive factors of this Law is that it allows international arbitration, an aspect that provides confidence to investors.
But in the non-oil economy things do not seem to be going so well. “In general I see it as weak due to a problem of lack of demand, because salaries are very low,” he comments.
He states that there are sectors that have grown, such as the financial sector, but in this sector, “the credit portfolio is indexed to the exchange rate,” so growth is natural to the extent that the bolivar loses its value.
He explains that there has also been growth in the pharmaceutical sector, while manufacturing does not look strong and construction does not start.” So, there is a problem there, but clearly the economy is going to grow.”
Uncontrolled inflation
For Guerra there is a pending issue: “I think it is the Achilles heel and it is the exchange rate.” He explains that the depreciation of the bolivar against the dollar in March was 13%, while the annual depreciation reached 570%.
“The economy is what they call unanchored, that is, it does not have an anchor for prices,” he explained. He adds that “inflation is moving at the rate of the exchange rate. That’s where the big problem is for me.”
He explained that the Central Bank of Venezuela is devaluing every day, “although this year less than the previous year, with the idea of closing the gap with the parallel market.”
He says that this is a race that “passes through two lanes,” because the parallel continues to rise, so what is happening? “That there are actually three exchange rates. There is the exchange rate of the Central Bank, which no one knows how it determines; and that of the auction of the Bank of Venezuela, which is the one that sets the second rate and the parallel rate.”
He comments that the dollars that are entering the economy should be enough to satisfy demand and it is not happening that way. He explains that to stabilize the exchange rate two things have to happen: A supply of dollars, which according to Guerra must exist, because the price of oil has risen to $90 a barrel and the volume of production is increasing.
The other important factor is the control over the bolivars “that go out to buy dollars.” “That has been contracting as well, but the conditions are in place so that the exchange rate does not continue to devalue, because there are dollars and the supply of bolivars is not growing as before. So, it means that the Central Bank has an express devaluation policy.”
For Guerra, this policy is wrong. “It seems to me that what may be happening is that the Central Bank, the government, continues to devalue to try to have more tax revenue and try to close the deficit.” He points out that both aspects are leading to a very high inflationary cycle.
The economist believes that growth in the non-oil economy and related employment will take time to occur. “That takes time. The job that is being created is the one that revolves around oil and it is a highly qualified job,” he points out.
Based on what has been expressed, it is considered that at the end of this year there will be GDP growth between 12 and 15%. “It is high growth, but driven by oil, because the non-oil economy is affected by inflation,” he points out.
Distortions and waves
In an opinion article titled “The economics of waves: how to read the uneven recoveryeconomist Asdrúbal Oliveros contrasts the situation prior to Maduro’s departure and the one after: “We closed 2025 with inflation in bolivars close to 500% and more than 35% in dollars. Venezuela is on the verge of a new hyperinflationary cycle. However, moving into 2026, and after the events of January 3, the trajectory for the economy is totally different: inflation is expected to decrease. slow down, the economy grows, greater cash flow in specific areas and, above all, a change in expectations,” he says.
He says in the text published in Tal Cual that, after the events of early January, the market reordered its priorities and, when that happens in Venezuela, the economy does not move as a block. It moves by “waves”, which is why it suggests that the recovery will be uneven.
Next, Oliveros describes the characteristics of the waves:
“The first (The one that drags)”: Refers to the hydrocarbons, energy sectors and their entire ecosystem. “Not only because of the potential for higher income for the country compared to 2025, but because of its immediate multiplier effect on logistics, industrial services and certain construction areas linked to these sectors.”
The second wave (the silent one) would be that of business and real estate services, and even spaces linked to contracting or public services. “These are sectors that react when there is a minimum of predictability. They do not need absolute certainty, just a slightly less chaotic environment than the previous year,” he explains.
Oliveros says that the third wave (the recomposition) is made up of commerce and retail. “Here the narrative requires caution. We are not seeing the consumption boom of a few years ago nor are there any artificial impulses. What there is is a slow, segmented recomposition with a much more demanding customer regarding the value proposition. But in the medium term (3-4 years), Venezuela is preparing to double its GDP per capita and opportunities arise there.”
Then what he describes as “the late waves,” composed of construction (residential/commercial) and traditional manufacturing. “Their potential is intact, but they depend on oxygen that remains scarce: bank credit, long-term financing and rules of the game that are sustained over time.”
Finally, the economist speaks of “the conditioned wave”, which is made up of tourism and local services. “They have opportunities, but their ceiling is marked by infrastructure, connectivity and the great national bottleneck: institutionality.”
Balance
Evidently, three months into Delcy Rodríguez’s Presidency, expectations for the Venezuelan economy show an improvement, driven by the lifting of US economic sanctions, which has allowed PDVSA to sell its oil without discounts, at international prices, while the Trump administration tries to convince oil transnationals to invest in Venezuela and the effect of the war in Iran skyrockets crude oil prices.
Laws such as the Hydrocarbons Law and the Mines Law, which is in the process of approval in Parliament, will make it possible to counteract the opacity with which these resources were managed and should make the income from this concept, which was previously lost in the tangle of corruption, more efficient.
But the measures against devaluation, inflation, the recovery of infrastructure, improvements in security, the curb on government corruption and the formation of a respectable institutional framework through the popular vote that generates confidence to shield foreign investment, will be key elements that will pave the way for truly lasting economic growth.
