WASHINGTON.- The probabilities that this year there will be a super El Niño events that raise global temperatures are on the rise, according to an updated modeling forecast released Sunday.
The latest outlook from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Ecmwf) indicates that there is a high probability of a particularly intense version of this weather patternwhich influences regional and global weather systems, during this summer or fall (in the northern hemisphere), and confirms the prediction of a super El Niño raised last month.
During a typical El Niño event, a warming zone of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean affects which regions face droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and a reduction in sea ice. In super El Niño events—relatively infrequent and They are recorded on average once every 10 to 15 years— these effects may be more intense, more persistent and more widespread.
This happens because Sea temperatures in that key Pacific region rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, generating a strong atmospheric response that typically peaks in December or January.
For example, the western United States and parts of Africa, Europe and India could pass through a hotter than average summer; some tropical countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Indonesia, could face more severe droughts and extreme heat; while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific Ocean and fewer in the Atlantic.
This possible super El Niño could also push global temperatures to record levels, especially in 2027and have an impact on agricultural production as climate patterns change.
“There is a real potential for this to be the strongest El Niño in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric sciences at the State University of New York at Albany.
This year’s potential super El Niño looks increasingly likely and could lead to far-reaching climate impacts lasting into 2027.
Even could break the El Niño intensity record recorded in December 2015when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific region reached 2.8 degrees Celsius above average.
Still, while some signs point to a powerful episode—such as the development of an unusual triple cyclone pattern in the Pacific—uncertainty remains about how intense this year’s event will become. Besides, No two El Niño events are the same, particularly in a context of global warming, although previous experiences can be used to plan and anticipate scenarios.
These are some of the meteorological impacts that, according to the most recent projection of the models, could develop at least until October:
The most intense El Niño events are almost always associated with record temperature years. This happens because During El Niño heat is released from the ocean, it spreads across the Pacific tropics and then redistributes on a planetary scale through changes in the jet streams.
That process could contribute to milder winters in the United States and the arrival of large storms on the West Coast as the effects of El Niño peak between the end of this year and the beginning of 2027.
As the planet warms, El Niño behaves differently
Periods of strong El Niño typically appear as an ascending step on long-term global temperature charts.
“Due to the sustained increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system is unable to effectively dissipate the heat released during a strong El Niño event before the next one occurs, which again raises the baseline,” explained Eric Webb, a meteorologist at the United States Department of Defense.
In this way, a super El Niño in the period 2026-2027 would disperse more heat than those recorded in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
In addition to spreading unusual heat and humidity on a large scale, A super El Niño could also generate record atmospheric moisture flows, that drive intense rains and increase the risk of flooding. This is because a warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to retain and transport water vapor.
