The over-the-counter dollar exchange rate exceeded 75 rubles/$ for the first time in two months. To a large extent, the weakening of the Russian currency was determined by expectations of a decrease in the supply of export earnings due to falling oil prices. Analysts do not rule out an increase in the dollar exchange rate to 80 rubles/$ by the end of summer, including due to increased demand for currency from the population and importers, as well as redemption from the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget rule.
On June 23, the over-the-counter dollar exchange rate rose above 75 rubles/$ for the first time since the beginning of May. According to MFD-Infocenter, at the very beginning of the day the rate reached 75.24 rubles/$, which is 1.1 rubles higher. (1.5%) exceeded Monday’s closing value. It was not possible to stay above the psychologically important level, and by 19:00 the dollar exchange rate rolled back to 74.5 rubles/$. It hasn’t closed this high since May 7th. The yuan exchange rate at trading on the Moscow Exchange also rose to its maximum since the beginning of May, to 11.07 rubles/CNY, which is more than 7 kopecks. (0.8%) higher than the closing values of the previous day. At the end of the trading session, it closed at 11.09 rubles/CNY. Since the beginning of the week, the dollar exchange rate has increased by 1.5 rubles. (2%), the yuan exchange rate is 13 kopecks. (1.2%).
The American currency confidently strengthened its position on the world market. Over the past five days, the DXY index (the dollar exchange rate against six leading currencies) has risen by 2%, to 101.4 points, the highest since May 2025. This was a reaction to the Fed’s decision save bet at a constant level, and in comments the new head of the regulator, Kevin Warsh, allowed it to increase this year by 25 bp. “The higher the US base rate, the stronger the dollar, as dollar assets become more profitable. This is negative for most currencies of developing economies,” explains Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
There were internal reasons for the weakening of the Russian currency.
In particular, the stock market collapse caused by the decision of the Bank of Russia to reduce the rate by only 25 basis points. p., and not by 50 b. etc., as professional participants expected (see “Kommersant” dated June 19). As a result, the RGBI government bond index fell by more than 3%, and the Moscow Exchange index sank by almost 6%. As Pavel Biryukov, chief economist at Gazprombank, notes, in such conditions the demand for currency from speculators could increase. This indirectly confirms the increase in rates on yuan interbank loans – from 3.8% per annum on June 19 to 12% per annum on the 22nd. The subsequent return of rates to 3.3% per annum at auction on Tuesday, June 23, according to the expert, confirms the importance of the factor of demand for currency in the short-term movement of the exchange rate.
Additional pressure on the ruble comes from fears of falling export revenues from oil sales, the cost of which is rapidly declining as the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted. On Tuesday, the price of the nearest Brent oil contract fell below $76.5 per barrel for the first time since the beginning of March, having lost 5% since the beginning of the week and about 20% since the beginning of the month. The price of Russian Urals oil dropped from $75 per barrel in early June to $50–60 per barrel. “Foreign currency sales by the largest exporters may decline from $10.2 billion in May to $8–9 billion in June,” estimates Mr. Biryukov. According to Nikita Eurov, a currency and interest rate strategist at Alfa Bank, the revision of expectations is already “provoking speculative purchases of currency, and also increases the demand of companies for currency hedging,” which leads to an accelerated weakening of the ruble.
The ruble will receive local support during the tax period, with the bulk of payments due at the end of this week. According to Vladimir Evstifeev, budget revenues will amount to 3.8 trillion rubles.
Such payments, in his opinion, will help the ruble exchange rate return to the range of 72–74 rubles/$ in the coming days. However, next week the ruble will remain without this support, with a simultaneous seasonal increase in demand for the currency for foreign summer holidays. The purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance according to the budget rule also plays against the strengthening of the ruble. According to Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev, it will amount to 3–4 billion rubles. per day.
The development of the situation in the Middle East will be important for the foreign exchange market, since further de-escalation of the situation will lead to a reduction in foreign exchange earnings of Russian exporters. According to Pavel Biryukov, currency sales by exporters in July may decline by another $1–2 billion. As a result, in his opinion, the dollar exchange rate next month may shift to the range of 74–77 rubles/$. By the end of summer, the ruble will stabilize in the range of 75–80 rubles/$, Nikita Eurov believes. However, he said, “the rate will largely depend on exporters who can offer additional foreign currency to finance the payment of dividends in July.”
