It is no secret that the Republican vote continues to grow in the progressive State of California, and that electoral muscle has become visible in a close race in which they hope to regain the governorship, in Democratic hands since 2011. Steve Hilton, a political commentator who enjoys the support of President Donald Trump, has led the preferences or is in the fight for the lead in several recent polls, a surprising scenario that would not only put the party in power in trouble, but also questions the results and momentum of the outgoing governor, Gavin Newsomwho aspires to the White House.
Reactivating a battered economy in a State where the cost of living has not stopped escalating and reinforcing public security, with the support of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Service (ICE) operations, constitute, broadly speaking, the axes of the Hilton and the sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican candidate with possibilities. Their campaigns mix conservative positions and proximity to Trump’s agenda, such as expanding deportations and toughening immigration law enforcement.
In the polls, Hilton remains ahead. It registers 18% voting intention, according to SurveyUSA. Although this poll places him in second position, several others have placed him as a favorite. This happened at the end of April, when it reached 16% of preferences in a consultation made by CBS and YouGov. Bianco, for his part, has given up some ground, but is still in contention: he comes from measurements in which he was competing for second place. These results, a little less than a month before the June 2 primaries, are key, since the Californian electoral system, known as a jungle primary (“jungle primaries”), does not distinguish political institutes on the ballot: the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of whether they are from the same party, advance to the general election on November 3.
At the other extreme, the Democratic electorate is undecided against a wide menu of candidates, in which businessman and philanthropist Tom Steyer, former federal Secretary of Health Xavier Becerra, former congresswoman Katie Porter and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa stand out. There was a rearrangement after whoever was leading in the polls, Eric Swalwell will leave the campaign and his congressional seat amid serious allegations of sexual abuse.
“A lot of people have talked about the possibility of there being two Republicans in the runoff. I think there’s a much higher probability that there will be two Democrats in the runoff and that’s why the Republican Party and Donald Trump have decided to get involved and make sure that Hilton goes to the runoff,” says Fernando Guerra, professor and director of the Los Angeles Studies Center at Loyola Marymount University. “What could happen is that many Republicans nationally start donating to Hilton because they want to make sure there is a Republican on the ballot in November,” the professor explains.
That injection of donations and Trump’s messages of support are what could sustain Hilton until the end of the race. Since the system is applied jungle primary In 2012, the scenario of two Democrats reaching the general election for governor has not occurred. Newsom competed in the general elections with two Republicans: John H. Cox (2018) and Brian Dahle (2022). He won both battles with large double-digit leads.
The consequence of being too anti-immigrant
Steve Hilton was born in England in 1969, studied at the University of Oxford and began his career in British politics, linked to the Conservative Party during the Margaret Thatcher era. In 2012 he moved to California and began a career as a host and political commentator for Fox News. His plan is, in his own style, to repeat the feat of the migrant who became governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since the movie star concluded his second term in January 2011, no other Republican has returned to office.
Since then, the state has been establishing itself as a blue bastion, with a large Democratic majority in the state legislature and also in voter registration. That’s why the Hilton phenomenon, with busy events and constant fundraising, results in an astonishing turnaround.
“There is a majority for change in California,” Hilton declared at a recent campaign event in the coastal city of Huntington Beach. Among the proposals with which he has sought to attract the vote are the creation of incentives to retain Hollywood in Los Angeles and the technology industry in Silicon Valley; the reduction of various taxes (such as exempting those who earn up to $100,000 annually from state payments) and streamlining the processes to build affordable housing. He is also aligned with positions in favor of a tougher immigration policy and affirms that “everyone” supports Trump’s plan to massively expel undocumented immigrants.
Chad Bianco, for his part, is considered the sheriff of Trump’s MAGA movement. A police action of his that attracted the spotlight to his campaign was having confiscation of electoral ballots ordered as part of an investigation into alleged fraud allegations, a decision that quickly sparked controversy. The measure was interpreted as a way to capitalize on the narratives promoted by Republican sectors that maintain, without showing evidence, that their political rivals benefit from irregularities to gain votes.
This police chief has said that, if the vote favors him, one of his first actions would be to reverse a law that, in his opinion, has protected undocumented immigrants, SB 54, which limits the cooperation of local law enforcement with ICE. This regulation prohibits the use of public resources to assist in deportations, the detention of people solely on ICE immigration orders, and the transfer of people to the custody of that agency without certain legal conditions. In statements to the press, Bianco has said that SB 54 “was designed to prevent criminals from being deported.” He also opposes any initiative that limits the actions of the immigration police.
Professor Fernando Guerra says he had not seen Republican candidates in California with anti-immigrant stances since the era when Pete Wilson, campaigning for re-election as governor, promoted the controversial Proposition 187 in 1994, which restricted undocumented immigrants’ access to public services, such as education and health care. 187 was approved by voters, but was blocked by federal courts and never went into effect. Wilson triumphed in that vote, after using 187 as a dominant theme in his political message.
Some believe that this was the beginning of the debacle of the Republican Party in California. Prominent Hispanic politicians emerged from the fight to reverse that initiative, such as the now gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, as well as Senator Alex Padilla.
“Although Pete Wilson recognized at the time that being anti-immigrant could have long-term negative effects, he thought it would bring him short-term benefits, and it did,” says Guerra. According to the expert, Hilton and Bianco “are trying to mobilize the anti-immigrant vote within the Republican Party” and although “they will not admit it,” “they know that this makes them unlikely to win in the general elections.”
The MAGA side of California
For more than three decades, California has been the political laboratory of American progressivism: a Democratic bastion where Republican presidential candidates only aspire to collect million-dollar donations and where the party’s contenders for governor seem to compete more to limit defeat than to conquer power. The curious fact is that it was the third state that voted the most for Trump in 2024 (6 million votes), only below Texas and Florida. That 38% of the total ballots counted in favor of the tycoon was not enough to paint the State red. In this adverse terrain for this political institute, however, changes are happening.
Trump improved his performance in 2024 compared to the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden. A little over a year ago, the Republican took from Kamala Harris several counties that Biden had won, including Riverside, San Bernardino, Fresno, Merced and San Joaquin. With those victories he painted half of California red.
Administrative data and studies point to a real phenomenon happening in recent years: Republicans are growing in California. Statistics from the Secretary of State show a relevant change between 2024 and 2025, when there were 289,000 new registered Republicans, compared to 88,000 new Democrats. This represents three times faster growth for the Republican Party in that period.
Added to this is the recent arrival of the conservative media California Postwhich is part of the New York Post and that has introduced a style of headlines unusual in the Los Angeles media ecosystem, even in comparison with the local FOX affiliate, which has sometimes been described as more moderate compared to the rhetoric of the national network. He post Californian has repeatedly incorporated the adjective “socialist” to critically refer to Democratic leaders. He is not the only one who has set his sights on this region. He think tank American The Manhattan Institute, based in New York and conservative in orientation, also plans to open offices in the State.
Professor Guerra sees it as “a commercial strategy” based on a reality that cannot be ignored: “There are many Republicans in California.” “Those are people who are willing to consume right-wing Republican media. And that makes them money and they can rant against Democrats.”
