EL NINO will tend to bring less rainfall than it usually does, says National Weather Service (NWS) director Kasis Inape.
Inape said this did not mean there would be no rain at all; it means the chances of rainfall happening will be drastically reduced resulting several months without rainfall and only few days with rainfall.
He said the extended period of no rain days as opposed to a few rain days would lead to drought, hence the association with the El Nino-induced period of dry weather.
“Rain can also be produced due to prevailing environmental conditions such as orographic lift due to mountains and sea breeze effects. These are localised effects,” Inape said.
“The next three-month outlook looks pretty dry for much of the country, with most areas expected to receive below average rainfall (80-90 per cent below average).”
He said during El Nino, there was an increased risk of tropical cyclone development.
“However, since the heat that drives the systems had moved eastwards, away from PNG waters, tropical cyclones would not be a concern for the country.”
He added that places like the Ok Tedi mine in Western and the National Capital District would be impacted with water levels expectedly dropping in the Fly River and Sirinumu dam in Sogeri as a result of the lower than normal rainfall over an extended period.
“Water levels will drop, but there won’t be changes in temperature,” he added.
“El Nino is different from the usual dry season. While the dry season is only for six months, El Niño is for an extended period of nine months or more of low rainfall.
“During the normal dry season, the country will experience heavy rainfall events, however during El Nino events, heavy rainfall events such as thunderstorms will be drastically reduced to only isolated showers or patches of rain.”
