This month, oil production in the Persian Gulf countries remains 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, according to estimates from the Goldman Sachs bank.
In a note dated Thursday, analysts such as Daan Struyven point out that the region’s total is now 57% below that recorded before the start of the war with Iran.
Experts warn that a likely recovery will require “a few months” and will depend on a full and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the absence of further attacks.
The prognosis is based on the premise that only a normalization of maritime traffic will gradually restore interrupted production.
The world oil market has been feeling increasing pressure as the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its third month.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the route that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets — remains practically blocked, with Tehran and Washington trying to impose restrictions on ships.
As a result, Brent, the international benchmark for crude oil, recorded its fifth consecutive day of rise, with a weekly appreciation estimated at 17%.
Analysts emphasize that the longer the strait remains effectively closed, the longer the restrictions will last and the slower the recovery in production will likely be.
