Americans go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new Congress. That is very important for incumbent President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party is expected to suffer a major defeat. That in itself is no surprise, because that happens to almost every president in the so-called midterms. The big question is whether he will also lose the majority in the Senate, which will drastically limit some of his power in the remaining two years of his presidency. However, that would not be good news for Suriname, which, as a fledgling oil country, is benefiting from Trump’s – to say the least – unruly policy.
Text Armand Snijders
Image Associated Press
Much of the world has been holding its breath for weeks: will Trump and the Republicans get a beating on Tuesday and, if so, how extensive will the damage be? There is a lot at stake in the bicameral Congress: all 435 seats for the House of Representatives will be re-elected. The Republicans still have a small majority there, but will most likely lose it. If the Democrats indeed seize power there, they can block the president’s legislation and launch in-depth parliamentary investigations.
“It is important that the Surinamese economy can withstand the turbulent political waves that will roll in from the north.”
In the Senate, only 35 of the hundred seats are at stake. But in terms of ‘weight’ it is more important than the House; they can block decisions and are also crucial for the approval of federal judges and ministers. The Republicans also still have the majority in the Senate and it will be a matter of tension on Tuesday whether it will remain that way.
If the Senate also falls into the hands of the Democrats, the last two years of Trump’s presidency will be much less pleasant for him than it has been so far. There is even speculation about a possible impeachment of the president, a so-called impeachment. But we are still a long way from that, despite the fact that a large part of the world would welcome it.
Extremely punishing
The fact that the Republicans will have a difficult time is largely due to Trump’s idiosyncratic, unpredictable and confusing policies with which he has literally turned the world upside down. Although these elections are mainly about the interests of states, districts and counties, a midterm poll is also important for voters to let them know how their president is doing. But this election seems to be all about Trump and he is in for a real punishment.
He has started bloody wars, picks fights with anyone he doesn’t like (even though they have been allies for centuries), stirs up xenophobia, makes controversial deals with sworn enemies and has seriously disrupted global trade. In addition, reports emerge almost every day about alleged practices of abuse of power, cronyism, self-enrichment and other such unsavory matters. Not to mention the rape and sexual assault charges filed against him.
The list of suspicions is much longer; new allegations against him appear in the media every day. But leave aside his immense unpopularity and its causes. It is necessary to look at what Tuesday’s result can mean for Suriname. Because while almost everyone realizes that the world will probably become a safer place again if the power of ‘dictator’ Trump is contained, this could also have negative consequences for some countries.
American oil hunger
The ultimate political color of the American Congress also determines how Washington positions itself towards Suriname as a young oil and gas giant in the making. If the Republicans hold on against expectations, the course will remain unchanged: America First and an aggressive focus on fossil fuels.
After all, everything Trump has done so far has put American oil interests first. Whether it concerns Venezuela, the murder of hundreds of passengers on alleged drug vessels, the bombing of innocent people in the Iran war he unleashed or the conclusion of incomprehensible diesel deals with Russia, everything must give way to America’s hunger for oil, including principles.
Economic profit
For the Surinamese government, this hunger is in fact a desirable license to continue the exploitation of the offshore reserves at a rapid pace. The oil giants, who have close ties with the Republican Party, will be prevented from doing business with Suriname by Trump. Even environmental requirements and climate goals are made secondary to economic profit and energy independence of the Western Hemisphere in this scenario. So Suriname mainly benefits from this – at least in the short term.
That will be different from when the Democrats take control of Congress. Then the playing field changes drastically. Although Trump remains president, Congress will have control over the budget and foreign committees and key appointments. Democrats will impose much stricter climate demands on international partners through legislation and diplomatic pressure.
Democratic magnifying glass
Suriname, which likes to profile itself as a ‘carbon-negative’ country with its vast Amazon rainforest, will come under a Democratic magnifying glass. The pressure to apply strict environmental standards when oil drilling will increase. Moreover, American subsidies and loans for infrastructure projects in Suriname can be linked to strict ‘green’ conditions, which can limit Surinamese policy freedom.
The mid-term elections in the US are therefore not a distant memory for Suriname, certainly not for the government of President Jennifer Geerlings-Simons. The expected shift in power to the Democrats will put a brake on the absolute dominance of Trump policy, resulting in a completely different foreign attitude with more attention to climate and multilateral diplomacy.
Oil price fluctuations
If a Democratic Congress manages to block or moderate Trump’s protectionist trade policies, it could at least bring more stability to global markets. This could be beneficial for Suriname, which is heavily dependent on the import of consumer goods and machinery for the mining and oil sectors.
However, should the Congress become paralyzed by infighting, it could lead to oil price fluctuations on the global market. Since Surinamese future plans and budgets are fully geared to expected oil revenues, every US dollar drop in oil prices can immediately leave a hole in Surinamese multi-year planning.
Don’t bet on one horse
Suriname would be wise not to bet on one horse and to prepare well for all possible scenarios. If policymakers focus on the current relations in the White House, the country could be destroyed very quickly.
“For the Surinamese government, the American oil hunger is in fact a license to continue the rapid exploitation of the offshore reserves”
Whether Washington turns red or blue, Suriname simply has to chart its own course. And in the meantime, pragmatically maneuver between the whims of the superpower and secure the offshore riches.
It is important that the Surinamese economy can withstand the turbulent political waves that will undoubtedly roll in from the north. In two years’ time – when there are presidential elections and Trump’s time is really over – the tide may have turned completely again, while the first oil flows from the Surinamese seabed.
