Data released Saturday by statistician Vincent Marmarà indicates that the Labour Party currently holds a 10.1% lead over the Nationalist Party, which equates to a margin of roughly 28,000 votes. Depending on minor fluctuations, this gap is expected to fall between 26,000 and 30,000 votes, or 9% to 11%. These estimates are predicated on an anticipated voter turnout of 80% for the upcoming election on May 30.
The research was conducted by Sagalytics through phone interviews with 1,200 participants from April 23 to 29, a timeframe that overlapped with Robert Abela’s April 27 announcement of a snap election. The study utilised a sample mirroring the nation’s demographics regarding age, sex, and region, maintaining a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.8%.
Internal party dynamics show that 7.8% of previous Labour supporters remain undecided, while 6% do not plan to participate. Conversely, 11% of past Nationalist voters are currently unsure of their choice, though only 2% of that group intend to abstain from voting. Interestingly, the number of individuals switching their allegiance between the two primary parties has reached a stalemate, with 1.7% of voters from each side planning to defect to the opposition.
After utilising statistical modelling to distribute the undecided portion of the electorate, Marmarà predicts that Labour will garner 53.1% of the vote compared to 43.1% for the PN. This leaves 2% for ADPD and 1.7% for various other candidates. This 10.1-point advantage shows an increase from Marmarà’s February findings, which suggested an 8.6% lead. It also presents a wider gap than the 6.3% lead reported by Esprimi in mid-April or the 2.6% margin suggested by MaltaToday in March. For historical context, the 2022 election saw Labour win with 55% of the vote on an 85.6% turnout.
Regarding leadership preferences, Robert Abela remains the top choice for Prime Minister with 45.6% support, while Alex Borg is favoured by 32%. Roughly 10.7% of respondents have not yet made up their minds, and 8% do not support any of the leaders. Abela’s current 13.6% lead over Borg marks a notable rise from his previous 9.7% advantage, suggesting his standing with the public has grown more robust.
