He meteorologist Guillermo Ramis warned that the climate phenomenon developing in the region could have relevant impacts in Uruguay in the coming months. “The phenomenon of The Child It will be the fifth most intense since 1950“, he stated this Monday in Informativo Sarandí, where he also estimated a probability of occurrence of the “85%”.
As he explained, the scenario would include “abundant and copious rainfall with flooding” in southern Brazil during July and August, which could have repercussions on the Uruguay River basin. “These floods are going to flow into the upper and middle basin of the Uruguay River, causing evacuees in August.“, he noted. In that context, he maintained that in Uruguay there could be “abundant rain” and that the evacuees “They can reach thousands”, especially in departments such as Salto, Paysandú and Río Negro.
Ramis indicated that currently it is going through “a weak cold phase” of the phenomenon, which “It increases over the months”, and stressed that the proposal points out that “decision makers take it into accountAs an example, he mentioned the management of the Salto Grande dam to cushion floods.
Official data show that events of this type have already generated significant impacts in recent years. According to the National Atlas of Floods and Urban Storm Drainage of the Ministry of Environmentin 2024, 12,902 evacuees were registeredwhile in In 2023 there were 5,504 displaced people due to floods in the country.
Metsul’s projections
NOAA data collected by the Brazilian Metsul observatory show that the central Pacific region remains within the neutral range, while relevant warming is already detected on the coasts of South America.
In this sense, the report states that “The trend indicates that the coastal El Niño phenomenon will intensify throughout the season” and that towards the end of autumn a larger scale event could be consolidated.
For this season, a predominance of high temperatures is expected. “Autumn heralds the arrival of cold weather, but at the beginning of the season there are often still summer temperatures.” indicates the analysis.
In addition, warm days are expected to continue even in the later months. “Even in June, you can expect some warm days”adds the report.
Sudden changes and greater thermal amplitude
Autumn will also be marked by strong variability. “In autumn it is common for temperatures to change abruptly“, they warn, in reference to the entry of cold fronts.
These changes can be significant in a few hours, with abrupt drops in temperature and episodes of intense wind associated with low pressure systems.
In terms of precipitation, the behavior will be variable. “This year’s autumn is expected to be characterized by irregular rains”, notes the report.
However, towards the second half of the season there could be an increase in rainfall. “We project an increase in the frequency and volume of rainfall throughout the season” indicates Metsul.
It is also warned about the possibility of extreme events: “The possibility of more intense and even extreme rain events increases particularly with the arrival of winter”.
