After the intervention of trump to avoid a return to war and safeguard negotiations for the signing of an agreement, Both Iran and Israel pledged to stop the attacks, but both threatened to bomb again if they consider that the other party violates the understanding reached.
The war in Iran began on February 28when Israel and USA They launched a joint offensive against Iranian territory that ended the life of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several senior officers of the Revolutionary Guardin an attempt to weaken the political and military structure of the Islamic Republic.
A woman shows a photo of the late Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on her phone during a demonstration in Tehran, June 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP).
/ ATTA KENARE
Then, Israel and the United States were betting that the coup against the Iranian political and military leadership would trigger an internal crisis and a popular uprising. that would weaken the regime from within. However, far from producing a revolution, Tehran managed to preserve its power structures, quickly replace its cadres, elect a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and thus maintain the cohesion of the State.
On the military level, Iran immediately responded with direct missile and drone attacks against Israel. Also expanded the conflict to countries in the region allied with the United Statesattacking US military bases, as well as refineries and strategic infrastructure located in several Gulf nations.
This combination of video captures shows the moment of an attack on a US base in Bahrain. (Photo by UGC / AFP).
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Finally, Iran resorted to one of the measures that analysts feared before the start of the war: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, strategic step through which 20% of the oil sold in the world passes. The decision caused a strong shock in the energy markets and led the price of a barrel to exceed $100.
The war went into a lull on April 8, when trump announced a truce. Since then, with the mediation of Pakistanthe parties negotiate a solution to the conflict. However, recent exchanges of attacks endanger the process.
Despite the harsh military, political and economic blows suffered since the beginning of the war, several facts suggest that Iran retains pressure and deterrence capacity against Israel and the United States. These are the main signs:
Two men examine a fallen missile on the outskirts of Jericho on June 8, 2026, following attacks by Iran and Houthi rebels against Israel. (Photo by Ahmad GHARABLI / AFP).
/ AHMAD GHARABLI
Iran had repeatedly warned that it would not accept attacks against Hezbollah in Beirut. When Israel crossed that line, Tehran responded with missiles.
From a strategic perspective, the message was clear: an attack on Hezbollah could trigger a direct Iranian responseexactly the deterrence doctrine that Tehran is trying to build.
Following the Iranian response, Trump personally intervened to ask Netanyahu not to respond and to give space to negotiations. Various US media reports indicate that Washington sought to contain the Israeli reaction instead of supporting an immediate escalation.
For Iranthis can be presented as a political victory, since His actions forced the United States to prioritize containment over offensive.
A woman walks past political posters hanging on the wall of a street in Beirut, Lebanon, on June 9, 2026. (EFE/EPA/WAEL HAMZEH).
The United States continues to seek a comprehensive deal with Iran to end the war. Trump even stated this Tuesday that the negotiations were close to a final phase.
Iran has continued to try to impose conditions on the United States for signing the deal, including assurances that it will not be attacked again. Tehran also refuses to sign an agreement making it explicit that it will not seek nuclear weapons. Nor does he want to commit to delivering the 440 kilos of 60% enriched uranium that he has, something that is a demand from Washington.
With its weekend attacks against Israel, Tehran demonstrated that it maintains its ability to respond despite the blows it has received.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida, on December 29, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP).
/ JIM WATSON
Another favorable element for Iran is the growing divergence between Trump and Netanyahu. While the United States seeks to close an agreement and reduce regional tension, Netanyahu seems more inclined to maintain military pressure until all his objectives are achieved. That difference weakens the image of a completely united front against Tehran.
“Iran is not weakened”
Iranian citizens stand next to a Kheibar missile symbol during a demonstration in support of the country’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on June 4, 2026. (AFP photo).
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The international analyst Francesco Tucciprofessor at the UPC, told The Commerce that the Iranian offensive sought to send a political and strategic message to its adversaries.
“Iran still has ballistic missiles and has drones. It has clearly suffered a degradation of its military capabilities, but it still has a response capability.”. What he did was to show that he can still respond. Its military capacity is not completely degraded. Not at all”, Indian.
According to Tucci, Iranian actions are also part of a broader strategy aimed at strengthening its negotiating position vis-à-vis the United States and Israel.
In his opinion, Tehran is trying to demonstrate that it has enough tools to prolong the pressure and raise the costs of any military escalation.
The analyst also highlighted that Trump’s intervention to stop new exchanges of attacks shows that Washington seeks to avoid an escalation that complicates diplomatic efforts.
For Tucci, Iran does not base its strategy solely on conventional military force, but on a combination of military, economic and political instruments.
“Iran is applying a hybrid war. Combine the military with the non-military“, accurate.
Within that strategy, he mentioned disinformation campaigns, pressure on energy markets and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
A woman walks past an anti-Israel mural in Tehran, the capital of Iran. (EFE/ Abedin Taherkenareh).
The analyst said that this tactic “It’s working. So far Iran has not undergone a regime changewhich was the ultimate objective of both Israel and the United States.”
Another element that, according to Tucci, favors Iran is the growing disagreement between Washington’s priorities and those of Israel.
The expert considered that the administration trump seeks to contain the conflict to avoid further economic and internal political repercussions, while the government of Netanyahu maintains a more confrontational stance.
“The crack in the agenda of the United States and Israel is beginning to be seen”he noted.
“The American agenda is separating from the Israeli one and that may work against Israel right now,” he added.
For Tucci, the Iranian attacks also seek to reaffirm Tehran’s commitment to its regional allies, especially Hezbollah in it Lebanon.
As he explained, Iran is trying to establish a deterrence doctrine based on the idea that any attack against its strategic partners will have direct consequences.
“If Israel attacks Hezbollah, I attack Israel hard.”
In Tucci’s opinion, maintaining that credibility is essential to preserve the cohesion of the so-called Resistance Axis, which are your proxies.
Finally, the analyst warned that One should not think that Iran is completely weakened. He noted that part of its arsenal has been dispersed and protected, allowing it to maintain a long-term resistance capacity.
In addition, he highlighted that Tehran has political and economic support from China and Russia that could help it endure a prolonged confrontation.
“It is very likely that Iran could continue with this strategy for a long time,” he sentenced.
