ST. PETERSBURG, June 5. /TASS/. Traditional, or inertial, drivers of Russia’s economic growth are nearing exhaustion, making a new economic growth model necessary, Sberbank CEO German Gref said at Sber’s business breakfast held as part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2026).
He noted that representatives of small businesses are the foundation of the economy and the creators of added value.
According to Gref, the Russian economy is facing a number of serious challenges, including a high key interest rate, a growing tax burden, a strong ruble, and administrative barriers.
TASS has compiled the key statements made by the Sberbank chief.
Drivers of economic growth
Traditional or inertial drivers of Russia’s economic growth are nearing exhaustion, making a new growth model necessary: “Unemployment remains at historic lows, while capacity utilization is also high, and labor productivity has not yet grown at a pace that could offset these factors. Traditional or inertial drivers of economic growth are approaching exhaustion. The question now is what the future model of economic growth could be and what the government can and should do to implement it.”
The Russian economy will gradually transition to a new growth model: “I believe we will gradually move toward this new growth model. There will occasionally be setbacks. Technology and productivity improvement are now a mantra for any business, small or large. They also contain answers to how internal business must be transformed. These building blocks will provide new quality for a gradual transition.”
The economy continues to grow even under current challenging conditions, which can be called a miracle: “Regarding growth, we see that, thank God, it continues. In fact, it is already a miracle that under these conditions–with a strong ruble and a high key interest rate–the economy continues to grow.”
Foundation of the economy
Small-business representatives are the foundation of the economy, creating its added value: “I believe this is one of the fundamental things that must seriously change in our country.”
The efficiency of this economy reflects the efficiency of the entire state: “I believe our approach to business, to the people who build the economic foundation through their work, is crucial. The smaller the enterprise, the more attention should be paid to protecting it from administrative barriers and supporting it.”
‘Four horsemen of the apocalypse’
The Russian economy faces a number of serious challenges, including a high key interest rate, rising tax burden, a strong ruble, and administrative barriers: “We are indeed in a situation where people sometimes speak of the four ‘horsemen of the apocalypse’ in the economy. These are the high interest rate, the growing tax burden, the strong ruble, and issues related to administrative barriers.”
Key interest rate and monetary policy
The decline in investment signals the need for monetary policy easing, though the situation is not critical: “We have seen four consecutive quarters of declining investment. This is one of the warning factors, which is clearly a significant signal that a shift toward easing [monetary policy] is necessary. But overall, the situation is not critical yet.”
A key interest rate of 10-12% serves as a “psychological threshold” for business to start the investment cycle: “We see emerging trends toward a loosening of the Central Bank’s policy, and we maintain our forecast of 12% for the rate through the end of the year. This, we believe, is the psychological point at which businesses can start attracting investment and initiate the investment cycle. The 10-12% range is the critical threshold separating us from the investment cycle.”
AI and technology
Russia has all the necessary intellectual resources to support its own technological developments: “The good news is that we have all the resources, primarily intellectual resources, to maintain our technical developments at the proper level.”
Russia ranks among the top five countries in artificial intelligence, and the gap with other nations is expected to shrink: “We are definitely among the top five countries in this field. We have our own national models and sufficiently advanced companies, people, and teams, all possessing the full range of competencies required to develop foundational AI models.”
