Because the conflict in the Middle East will affect more economies smaller, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly improved the forecasts for Mexico for this and next year, considering a conservative base scenario.
In the update of Global Economic Expectations (WEO), the international organization that presides Kristalina Georgieva hopes that the mexican economy advance 1.6%.
The above means an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the January WEO when it expected a growth of 1.5%.
For him 2027 The new estimate is 2.2% from the 2.1% it had in the previous report at the beginning of the year.
THE IMF explained that in Mexicolower growth in 2025, due to fiscal consolidation, restrictive monetary policy and obstacles arising from trade tensions, is expected to give way to a slight recovery.
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The new forecast, without considering a more serious global outlook, is more optimistic than the World Bank than in March by maintaining the same estimate of 1.3% for this year and a cut to 1.7% for 2027 from the 1.8% it had before.
However, Mexico will be one of the economies whose growth will be below world expectations at 3.1% and the average for Latin America and the Caribbean (ALC) with 2.3%.
The document, “The Global Economy Is Tested Once Again,” presents an overview of the global economic outlook and baseline forecasts.
It is evident that the conflict in the Middle East represents an important counterpressure due to its impact on the markets of raw materialsthe expectations of inflation and financial conditions.
For this reason, in this edition of the April 2026 WEO, the IMF included three scenarios in its forecasts for the world economy.
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Thus, in the baseline forecast, global growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slower than its recent pace of approximately 3.4% in 2024-25, and to stabilize around that rate in the medium term, slower than its historical average (2000-19) of 3.7%.
The 2026 forecast for the global economy represents a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points and the 2027 forecast remains unchanged.
It is expected that the global general inflation increase to 4.4% in 2026 and decrease to 3.7% in 2027, which represents an upward adjustment for both years.
In an adverse scenario with greater and more persistent increases in energy prices, the Fund warns that the global growth would slow further to 2.5% in 2026 and inflation would reach 5.4%.
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With a more serious outlook, with greater damage to the energy infrastructure In the conflict region, the impact would be even greater: global growth would fall to just 2% in 2026.
While general inflation would be slightly above 6%, while in 2027 the impact on emerging and developing economies would be almost double that of the advanced economies.
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