An analysis by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) warns about the severe economic and social repercussions that an extreme El Niño phenomenon would have, as well as its effects on various productive sectors given the possibility of a high intensity episode.
According to the report, a phenomenon of these characteristics would cause a cumulative loss of at least 2% of the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over a three-year period, with half of that impact concentrated in the first year.
Furthermore, the negative impact on household incomes could raise poverty by up to 4.8 million additional people by the end of the decade, compared to a scenario without El Niño.
These projections are contained in ECLAC Special Report No. 3, titled “The effects of the El Niño phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean and recommendations to confront it, led by the organization’s executive secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.
Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) indicate a greater than 90% probability that El Niño will reach a very strong intensity during the fall and winter of 2026-2027 (months of October, November and December 2026, extending to January, February and March 2027), and a 69% probability of registering a historic magnitude, called “Super El Niño”, with anomalies in the sea surface temperatures higher than +2.5 °C or +3.0 °C in the Niño region 3.4.
ECLAC highlights that this phenomenon is developing in a context in which anthropogenic climate change amplifies natural variability, after a global average temperature of 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels was recorded in 2024.
Studies for the region show that El Niño reduces economic activity, although the magnitude and persistence of the losses vary between countries. The greatest estimated losses are concentrated in Ecuador, Peru and Colombia.
In an extreme El Niño scenario, the real GDP growth rate would be reduced, compared to a scenario without this phenomenon, by 4.4 percentage points in Ecuador, 4.1 percentage points in Peru and 0.9 percentage points in Colombia. For Chile, a reduction of around 0.5 percentage points is estimated.
In Costa Rica, El Niño would widen the negative gap between real GDP and its potential level by 0.4 percentage points.
For the group of countries made up of Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic, as well as for Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, the accumulated loss of real GDP would be close to 1%, and its effect would be observed between the first and second year after the episode.
According to ECLAC, the economic impacts will be heterogeneous and persistent, with effects on real GDP, inflationary pressures and higher levels of poverty and vulnerability in key sectors, such as energy, fishing, agriculture and some infrastructure.
According to the report, the region has a high structural vulnerability in the energy sector because, in several countries, hydroelectric generation exceeds 70% of the electrical matrix and more than 50% of the installed capacity is more than 30 years old.
For the October-December quarter of 2026, the probability of precipitation deficit reaches 60%, with 31.1% of the regional territory on high alert.
High temperatures will trigger the demand for electricity for air conditioning in large metropolises such as Lima, São Paulo and Mexico City, at times of lower water availability, increasing the risk of power outages and operational cost overruns.
The report also warns of severe impacts on fishing and marine resources. The weakening of the upwelling of cold waters in the Pacific reduces the availability of phytoplankton, alters the food web and causes the sinking and migration of key species such as anchovy, sardine and hake.
In past Super El Niño episodes, regional fishing catches suffered reductions of 52.7% between 1972 and 1973 and 26.9% between 1997 and 1998.
Added to this is the proliferation of harmful algal blooms, known as red tide, and the massive bleaching of coral reefs throughout the region.
The agricultural sector and food security also face risks. Based on the FAO analysis, the report identifies probabilities greater than 70% of suffering droughts that would affect the agricultural sector during the coming months in the Central American Dry Corridor, Colombia, Venezuela and Caribbean countries such as Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. These conditions would threaten staple crops, fodder availability and rural incomes.
To prevent climate impacts from leading to prolonged socioeconomic crises, ECLAC proposes ten measures: incorporate climate risk into planning and public policies; strengthen resilient infrastructure and early warning systems; create contingency financial mechanisms and climate insurance; protect productive chains, livelihoods and vulnerable settlements; restore ecosystems and reinforce fishing sustainability; expand regional cooperation and energy integration; diversify sources of electricity generation; improve the comprehensive management of water resources; strengthen transfers and social protection networks for vulnerable households; and promote energy savings and demand management during periods of high temperatures.
“The responses adopted once the emergency is declared are considerably more costly than preventive measures based on adequate anticipation. It is imperative to move from a post-loss response to anticipatory management of climate risk,” said the ECLAC executive secretary.
