Regulated fuel prices are expected to rise on Tuesday, according to the Finance Ministry’s calculations. With the extended measure of the abolished environmental duty, according to their estimation, gasoline will be more expensive by about six cents and will cost around 1.70 euros per liter, diesel should rise in price by about eight cents to 1.79 euros, heating oil by eight cents to 1.43 euros.
When evaluating diesel and fuel oil in particular, this time at Financa, they are extra careful, as noise crept into the data during the previous forecast, so larger deviations are possible this time as well. According to them, the calculations are based on the assumption that the environmental tax will continue to be zero. Namely, the government did not charge the environmental tax in the last month and a half, and the measure expires on Monday. In case of reintroduction of the said duty, the prices could jump by a few cents more, they added.
As they explained, the oil markets fluctuated strongly again at the end of April, which will be reflected in the determination of the regulated fuel price. On the last day of April, a barrel of Brent oil reached its highest level since the outbreak of the Iran war, the price exceeded 126 dollars, which was the highest since 2022. The main reason for the jump was reports that the United States was preparing to extend the blockade of Iran for several months. The decision of the United Arab Emirates to leave the Opec oil cartel after almost six decades on May 1 also introduced additional uncertainty into the market.
According to Financ, the euro-dollar currency pair will not be a more important factor this time. Despite the last meetings of the central banks, between April 24 and 30, the euro moved similarly to the dollar, so the movement of the exchange rate will not significantly affect the formation of the new regulated price, they added.
