After the rating improvements that Argentina received in recent weeksfirst by Fitch and after S&Pthe debate among international investors began to shift towards a new question: What does the country need to regain normal access to credit markets and definitively leave the stabilization stage behind?.
For Ernesto Revillachief economist for Latin America at Citi Research, that will be the true proof that the progress made by the economic program of Javier Milei They consolidated. “Access to the market will be proof that it has been possible to move to a new stage“, stated Revilla in dialogue with THE NATION. In his opinion, the return to voluntary financing summarizes a good part of the challenges that the Argentine economy still faces: consolidating the recovery, continuing to strengthen international reservespreserve investor confidence and maintain the macroeconomic balances achieved in recent months.
The Mexican economist maintained that the market recognizes the progress made by the Government since the beginning of the stabilization program, including fiscal regulation, the slowdown in inflation and the improvement of external accounts. He also highlighted the growing contribution of the energy sector, led by Dead Cowas a source of dollars for the economy. “It is recognized how much Argentina has achieved with the stabilization program so far. Argentina’s credit profile is clearly better than in the past,” he said.
Revilla pointed out that the next challenge It is no longer just about stabilizing, but about achieving a broader recovery of activity. In this framework, he maintained that the market closely follows the debate on the exchange rate and economic policy priorities. “There is a discussion about whether Argentina could have a less appreciated exchange rate to try to promote the growth of other sectors,” he explained.
As he noted, investors are seeking to understand how the tension will be resolved between promoting activities that do not yet fully participate in the recovery and continuing to prioritize the slowdown in inflation. “There is no clear answer that any mathematical model can give you,” he said.
However, he warned that the improvement in economic fundamentals does not eliminate a discussion that will be increasingly important for international investors: the permanence of the changes.
As Revilla explained, investors will look for evidence that the transformations implemented during Javier Milei’s administration can be sustained beyond the current political cycle. “It is advisable to continue strengthening the institutionality and permanence of the changes,” he said. And he raised the question that, according to his vision, will begin to gain prominence among international analysts: “Will it remain this way regardless of who wins the presidency or which party is in power?”
In that sense, he considered that the next step for Argentina is to advance in greater institutionalization of some of the policies that allowed stabilizing the economy. During the interview he used a medical analogy to describe the moment the country is going through. He compared Argentina to a patient who arrived in intensive care and needed emergency measures to stabilize. Now, he maintained, a different stage begins, in which the challenge is to transform these exceptional measures into more permanent rules.
“What the market wants to see are more permanent rules that guide economic policy”he explained.
Revilla pointed out that part of investors’ doubts involve the sustainability of some decisions adopted during the adjustment. He cited as an example the sharp reduction in public investment, a tool that helped improve fiscal accounts but which, in his opinion, does not constitute a long-term strategy to boost growth. He also mentioned the need to move towards a more institutionalized monetary and exchange rate scheme and less dependent on discretionary decisions of the policy in power.
The economist highlighted that the perception of Argentina improved significantly compared to last year and even compared to the beginning of 2026, when doubts persisted about the country’s ability to accumulate international reserves. “The market is more confident than it has probably been in a year,” he stated.
However, he stressed that this improvement in confidence does not yet imply that the work is finished. “The interesting question is whether that is enough. I think not yet,” held.
In this context, the return to the markets also appears associated with a specific need. In 2027, Argentina will face maturities with private bondholders for more than US$10,000 million, according to calculations by the consulting firm 1816, so the reconstruction of access to international financing is observed as a key step to reduce vulnerabilities for the coming years.
Looking ahead to the coming months, Revilla anticipated that investors’ attention will begin to progressively shift from macroeconomic variables to political dynamics. Although he considered that issues such as reserves, growth or the maturity profile will continue to be observed, he believes that the market focus will increasingly concentrate on the elections and the ability of the reforms to survive changes in Government.
“Very quickly the market’s attention will focus on the political dynamics”he stated. As he explained, investors will want to understand how the different actors arrive at the next electoral processes, what the possible scenarios are and what consequences each one would have on the continuity of the economic program.
For Revilla, the rating improvements represent recognition of the progress made so far, but not the end of the process. In his opinion, the discussion It no longer revolves solely around stabilization, but about Argentina’s ability to convert those achievements into permanent changes, expand economic recovery and regain normal access to international markets.
