How would Germany be paralyzed? Relatively easily, because society is divided, and especially in the former East Germany there are many people who are pleased with Moscow’s policies. This is rather strange, since the region lived under occupation, but many feel a strong nostalgia for the old times, and a significant number think that with German reunification, their country disappeared.
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Germany has a very large Russian community, estimated at up to 3.5 million people. Naturally, not all of them are hostile to the country they live in, but even 1 percent would mean 35,000 people. Considering the columns of cars with Russian flags and Z-symbols that have appeared in Berlin and other German cities, such a number certainly exists. After the mobilization in autumn 2022, a large number of Russians also left for Germany, most of them draft dodgers. In addition, Russian intelligence services themselves sent a considerable number of agents there and have recruited more over time.
Russian intelligence operations involving the arson of warehouses, attacks on people, assassinations, and hybrid operations are not rare. By their nature, these are terrorist acts, and the purpose of the operations is to destabilize society.
Why conquer Hiiumaa, somewhere on the edge of Europe, if you can immediately destabilize one of the more central states? Off the German coast lies the island of Rügen, the seizure of which would have a much greater effect. Occupying the island would plunge the country into internal chaos. As it is a well-known tourist area, it would attract much more attention, and many people have a personal connection to the place. Inside the country, many politicians would emerge who would want to de-escalate immediately or make major concessions, because the mindset cultivated by former chancellor Gerhard Schröder, now in Russia’s service, is still strong, even if sometimes muted. Angela Merkel’s messages in 2025 have also given an indication of the prevailing way of thinking there, and influential party colleagues of the current chancellor have likewise called for a return to doing business with Russia.
