The president Lula (PT) lost an advantage in a second round of this year’s election, points out the Datafolha. He was surpassed numerically for the first time by Flavio Bolsonaro (PL), which reached 46% compared to 45% for the PT member. When the rival is Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) or Romeo Zema (New), the representative scores 45% compared to 42%.
All results constitute ties within the margin of error of plus or minus two points of the survey, which interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 cities from Tuesday (7) to Thursday (9). He is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with code BR-03770/2026.
This is the first research to purify the list of pre-candidates based on the choice of the former governor of Goiás by the PSD, last week.
Among Lula’s rivals in a second round, Caiado was the one who gained the most momentum in the face of past surveyfrom the beginning of March. He is competing for a vote in the same lane as Flávio and Zema, on the right of the political spectrum, thus eliminating the idea of a centrist third way in the election.
In the last round, the Goiás native lost 46% to 36% to Lula, and now the difference has fallen by eight points. Rio de Janeiro senator Flávio, son of the former president Jair Bolsonarorose three points. Zema was evaluated in this scenario for the first time.
At this point, the second round is the most likely scenario. When null and blank numbers are excluded, which is the way in which the Electoral Court counts results of elections, Lula has 45% of intentions in valid votes. Their opponents combined have 55%, considering rounding. To win the dispute, you must have at least 50% plus one of the valid votes.
The data needs to be viewed with caution, however, due to the distance from the election. The rate of blank and invalid votes and undecided votes tends to fall close to the election.
The simulation of the first round, now reduced to just one and therefore only comparable to its analogue in the previous round, repeats the crystallization of a polarization between Lula and Flávio at this early stage of the electoral race.
The senator advanced four points in spontaneous mentions, going from 12% to 16%. Lula still leads the question when the interviewee does not have access to the list of pre-candidates, fluctuating from 25% to 26% compared to the previous survey. Caiado appears for the first time, with 2% of citations.
When the names are shown by the researcher, Lula repeats the 39% lead, but saw Flávio fluctuate positively by two points, from 33% to 35% — which shows a tendency for a technical tie at the limit of the margin of error, which statistically favors whoever is ahead. But the senator’s curve is rising and the president’s is stagnant.
Caiado, on the other hand, did not add significant support after his confirmation by the party led by Gilberto Kassabgoing from 4% to 5%. The PSD’s favorite for the postulation, the governor of Paraná Ratinho Junior, scored a little higher, but withdrew from the dispute.
Zema ties with Caiado, fluctuating from 5% to 4%, equals on the margin with former Minas Gerais governor Renan Santos (Missão), who went from 3% to 2%, while Aldo Rebelo (DC) fluctuated from 2% to 1%. Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), which had not been released, debuts with 1%. 10% declare voting blank or null, and 4% say they don’t know who to choose.
Rejection also remains stable and the numbers show the reverse side of polarization: those most desired by voters are also those most rejected by the opposing candidate’s fans, leaving few and decisive votes in the middle of the road.
In fact, 48% say they will not vote at all for the current president, while 46% reject Bolsonaro’s son outright. Confirming the firmness of these opinions, 99% say they know Lula and 93%, Flávio.
In this regard, Zema and Caiado do better. The Minas Gerais native is unknown to 56% of voters and has a rejection rate of just 17%. Goiás almost repeats the numbers: 54% and 16%, respectively.
Regarding the profile of the electorate, little surprise. Lula has voting intentions above his average among the 28% least educated (50%), the 47% poorest (44%) and the 26% of Northeasterners (55%). They are all strata with margins of error close to the general one, as they are voluminous.
The senator has 49% among the richest 2%, but there the margin is 13 points. It does better, with 41%, in the upper middle class segment, which earns 5 to 10 minimum wages (9% of the sample, with an 8 point margin).
Maintaining a standard which dates back to when his father ran in 2018, Flávio wins among the 29% of evangelicals, with 49% of intentions compared to 25% of Lula’s. When the interviewee is part of the 49% of Catholics, the PT member scores 43% and the senator, 30%. The margin is, respectively, 4 and 3 points.
In relation to the next group of pre-candidates, the distribution of their votes is generally homogeneous. Caiado stands out in its North/Mid-West of origin, with 12% of intentions in an area with 16% of the country’s population and 6 points of margin. Goiano scores the same in the 5 to 10 minimum segment.
Zema only has a different performance, with 9% of intentions, among the richest, who earn above 10 minimums, with the high margin already highlighted.
