The dust has now settled on the 2026 Antigua and Barbuda election, which is the Caribbean’s second major electoral contest of the year which appears to have followed a similar trend. This election generates an interesting analysis on several levels and this cursory glance touches a few critical headlines which would hopefully inspire more focused analyses among local and regional commentators.
Distinguishing features at the regional level
The ABLP returned to office under Prime Minister Gaston Browne in 2014 and would therefore now have won four successive elections in (2018, 2023 and 2026), which is unprecedented locally and rare regionally, especially as this occurred under the same prime minister. This puts PM Browne and the ABLP in the company of PM Skerrit and PM Gonsalves who have also broken this psychological three-term barrier. PM Browne, however, compares favourably to his colleagues in this elite sub-group since his fourth term victory was characterised by an increase in both seats and popular support. In the case of PM Gonsalves his fourth consecutive victory was characterised by statistically insignificant growth in support (1%) while that of PM Skerritt was in a similar range (2%). In this instance, however, the double-digit swing of 13 per cent and additional seat haul puts the ABLP’s victory in landslide territory which is unique among fourth term governments in the Caribbean.
A similarly noteworthy achievement is the significant shift (commonly referred to as a landslide) while in government, which is also rare. Caribbean governments and indeed governments generally usually win their first election and lose support thereafter and on rare occasions has the converse occurred. Previously PM Skerritt, PM Arthur, PM Holness and more recently PM Pierre would have benefited from such a phenomenon which reflects a rare vote of confidence by the population being governed. Arthur’s 1999 election was a similar example of this political phenomenon as was the case with both Holness (2020) and Pierre (2025). The fact that this is the second such achievement for PM Browne (2018 and 2026) now places him alongside PM Skerrit who also achieved an improvement twice.
National electoral observations
Regional distinctions aside, there were significant national observations that are noteworthy, starting with the reduction in voter participation on this occasion. Some 2 397 more persons were registered which was a four per cent increase on 2023 and reflects a contraction in voter registration when compared to 2023 which was a 19 per cent increase adding close to 10 000 new voters. This is perhaps explained by the fact that Antigua and Barbuda completed a voter recertification exercise which required people to re-certify their names on the voting list and it would appear that several persons who had no interest in voting this time did not collect the polling card and were effectively not registered.
Regardless, the voter turnout in this instance was low when compared to the previous election and indeed historically. Antigua and Barbuda has benefited from a list that is cleaner than most countries on account of their poll card requirement and as such their participation levels appear higher than is the case in places like Barbados. The issue of bloated lists across this region has been canvassed previously; however on this occasion the more pertinent issue is the comparative decline of 11 per cent which is significantly higher than it was in 2023 and reflects a significant decline in voter participation that requires some discussion.
Voter participation is a complex issue to explore without the benefit of knowing reasons for non-participation by voters. We can however reference the fact that the ABLP captured the support of 38 per cent of those registered (a 14% increase over 2023), while the UPP captured the support of 23 per cent of those registered, (a -27% decline over 2023), which effectively means that the reduction in voter participation impacted the UPP twice as heavily. In simple terms, it is clear from this data that UPP supporters did not turn out heavily for this election and this reaction is consistent with CADRES polling that projected a convincing ABLP victory and detected a distinctive lack of motivation on the part of UPP supporters.
Political projections and observations
The conversation regarding the historic result needs to be preceded by an acknowledgement that the decision to call the election was a political masterstroke by PM Browne. There are several opposing views arguing that prime ministers should not have the capacity to call early elections at politically opportunistic times, however our constitutions permit early elections and here along with Dominica (2022); Barbados (2022, 2026) and Saint Lucia (2025) the early call has paid handsome dividends. Certainly, PM Browne is easily the most comfortable fourth term leader in regional history on account of his own political strength, along with the relative weakness of the opposition, which is led by Jamal Pringle whose maiden leadership voyage was politically disastrous.
As stated above, the political outcome was consistent with CADRES polling, which helps to explain the anatomy of this landslide. In March CADRES projected a 13 per cent swing in favour of the ABLP which was the precise swing that materialized in the April 30 election. Apart from a clear lead in terms of preferred candidate and party, Antiguans were entirely more supportive of PM Browne for the post of prime minister which was measured in March at the level of 60 per cent (Browne) versus 15 per cent (Pringle). Clearly, Pringle who was leading the UPP into his first election was well-behind in terms of leadership perception and would therefore not be expected to inspire his supporters to turnout.
The swing towards the ABLP on this occasion was a direct reversal of the negative 12 per cent swing measured in 2023 and returns the parliamentary configuration to the 2018 scenario with a single UPP seat held by Pringle, prompting the moniker “Single-Pringle”. That swing statistic is also historic in that it is not only the largest positive swing ever achieved by the ABLP, but also the largest ever achieved by any political party in Antigua and Barbuda. In all of this, the individual outcome in Barbuda is also noteworthy as Barbuda went in an entirely different direction and easily returned the BPM’s Trevor Walker in the only constituency where the ABLP lost support. The peculiar movement of Barbuda is part of the electoral tradition here and the reasons are well-known, but slightly surprising on this occasion as the ABLP fielded one a cross-over candidate who clearly failed to bring any BPM support, while losing previous ABLP support.
Finally, it is useful to note the issues in this election and unsurprisingly the cost of living was among the most frequently mentioned, as was the case in Barbados, St Vincent, and Saint Lucia. In Antigua and Barbuda the cost of living was second in many constituencies to water, roads and infrastructure. The prioritisation of the issue of water is of particular concern as this basic need has dominated CADRES polling since 2004 when the UPP was in office and was believed to be central to the ABLP’s victory in 2014. Clearly the problem persists 20 years later and has been joined by concerns about roads which are also not new. The ABLP’s ability to prevail notwithstanding therefore speaks to a perceived superior ability by the Browne administration to tackle these issues, along with an acceptance that the issues are perhaps not political.
Peter W Wickham (peter.w.wickham@gmail.com) is a political consultant and a director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES).
