Congress, in its new bicameral era, will change in form, but not necessarily in substance. Datum’s electoral flash at the exit projects a composition with a smaller number of legislative forces, but with very similar profiles to the groups that would be left out of the unicameral exit period.
Datum’s projection proposes the entry of six political forces, both for the Chamber of Senators and the Chamber of Deputies. In both instances, Fuerza Popular is set to be the first minority in accordance with the exit poll of the presidential election that places its candidate Keiko Fujimori in the second round waiting to define her contender with the official count of the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE).
Popular Renewal and Together for Peru would also have important representation in deputies and senators, ensuring that they maintain their parliamentary representation. In Datum’s projection, the scenario is repeated where the ‘Castillista’ group is placed as the second force, and the celestial group remains as third in the correlation of legislative forces.
While the Good Government Party, Obras and Ahora Nación are emerging as the new groups for the bicameral composition. Although the exit poll shows that the composition would be six groups, some specialists consider that there could be the entry of an additional group such as Country for All, led by presidential candidate Carlos Álvarez.
The composition of the Senate Chamber, according to Datum’s exit poll flash.
—Change of logos—
Although the number of benches is reduced compared to the last period of the unicameral era, the entry of new groups does not guarantee a change in the populist dynamics seen in Parliament in recent years.
“The K (in reference to Fuerza Popular) and the R (in reference to Renovación Popular) have a similar tendency. Then you have JPP (Together for Peru) with Ahora Nación in the left bloc, and Jorge Nieto’s Good Government Party in the middle,” explained Martin Cabrera, director of IPOC Consultores.
Then, the parliamentary affairs expert finished graphing the new scenario with the rest of the benches: “Obras, Ricardo Belmont’s party, could be the new Podemos. While, if it gets seats, País para Todos, by Carlos Álvarez, could be the new APP or something similar to the teachers’ bench (in reference to the Teachers’ Bench).”
Along the same lines, Cabrera described the new groups as atomized parties, without roots and without a party program. Furthermore, he recalled that the majority of his legislative candidates opted, during the campaign, for populist proposals, especially in matters of citizen security.
Analyst Enzo Elguera added that these new logos achieve representation because they did not carry “backpacks” of questions like the groups that seem to be left out, such as Alianza para el Progreso, Somos Perú or Podemos. “They may be similar in a type of representation, whether geographical or another type of harmony with a certain audience. But it is precisely that audience that is attracted to characters without backpacks who have no characteristic beyond populism,” said the CEO of Imasolu.
Elguera also indicated that the correlation is projected to be balanced where the new political forces could achieve coordination to impose themselves on the parliamentary rules of the game.
The composition of the Chamber of Deputies according to Datum’s exit poll flash.
—A matter of history—
For Cabrera, the main concern of the new bicameral Congress is the political inexperience that predominates in the majority of Senate candidates. He only made some exceptions in Fuerza Popular, Renovación Popular, Ahora Nación and the Good Government Party.
“It is going to be a young Senate, so unfortunately it will not be able to contain the populist behavior that will come from the Chamber of Deputies. The majority of candidates for the Senate are people without political experience, without relevant professional experience, so you will have an Upper House with little expertise for the job,” said the director of IPOC Consultores.
For Cabrera, it will take the senators a year – two terms – to adapt to the dynamics. In the first legislature, the representatives and their teams of advisors must adapt to have a parliamentary learning curve and, in the second legislature, they must learn to contain the large number of legislative initiatives that they will receive from the Chamber of Deputies.
Under these guidelines, the parliamentary affairs experts announced that the first year of the bicameral era could be chaotic.
