Confidential analysis of C.I.A delivered this week to US government concludes that Iran is able to withstand a naval blockade of USA at least three to four months before facing more serious financial difficulties, according to four sources cited by the Washington Post.
As expected, the conclusions of this analysis raise serious questions about his claims donald trump, that the end of the war is near. In each case, three current and one former US official confirmed the key points of the CIA analysis, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The illegal oil and the economic cushion
The CIA’s analysis may even underestimate it resilience of Iran if Tehran manages to smuggle oil through land routes. Convoys and rail transport cannot replace the volume of ships and open sea lanes, but they may provide an economic cushion, one of the US officials said. “There is a belief that they could start moving some of the oil by rail to Central Asia,” the official said.
“The embargo the US president has imposed is doing real, compounding damage – disrupting trade, crushing revenue and hastening economic collapse. Iran’s military has been severely damaged, its navy has been destroyed and its leaders are in hiding,” the official said in a statement. “What remains is the regime’s thirst for civilian suffering. In other words, to starve his own people in order to prolong a war that he has already lost”, he added.
However, another US official said that, in his view, Iran’s ability to withstand prolonged economic hardship it is much larger even than the CIA estimates. “The leadership has become more radical, decisive and increasingly confident that it can withstand more than US political will and maintain internal repression to contain any resistance inside Iran,” the official said. “In comparison, we see similar regimes endure for years under ongoing embargoes and wars based solely on air power,” he added.
Significant reserves
It is also worth noting that the Central Intelligence Agency’s analysis finds that Tehran continues to maintain significant missile capabilities despite weeks of heavy bombing across the country by the US and Israel. Specifically, Iran reportedly maintains approx 75% of its pre-war stocks of mobile missile launchers and approx 70% of its pre-war stockpile of ballistic missiles, a US official said.
The official also said there were indications that Tehran had managed to restore and reactivate almost all of its underground missile and drone storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and finish assembling missiles that were almost ready when the war broke out.
It is noted that these estimates are in complete contradiction to recent statements by the American president. Just yesterday, Trump claimed that Iran’s missiles have been “virtually eliminated” and that Tehran has “probably 18% or 19%» of the pre-war stocks.
