Despite recent attacks by the United States and Israel, Washington intelligence has concluded that the damage to the US nuclear program Iran has been limited, which calls into question the effectiveness of the strategy promoted by the president donald trump to stop Iranian advance in this key area. Already last year, the same countries had bombed with powerful bunker buster shells the physical facilities where the uranium enrichment centrifuges and possibly the places where the 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% that the Islamic Republic possesses.
According to sources cited by the Reuters agency, the core capabilities of Iranincluding access to enriched uranium, remain largely intact, and The estimated deadlines for Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon would not have changed substantially.
Thus, analysts’ estimates after the attacks in June last year remain unchanged today: Iran would have seen its goal of producing a nuclear weapon delayed by about a yearaccording to the Reuters report; a gap that, far from implying a decisive setback, rather suggests a very limited impact on Tehran’s strategic timetable.
A woman waves an Iranian flag in front of an anti-American billboard referencing US President Donald Trump and the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran’s Valiasr Square on May 5, 2026. (AFP Photo)
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Before the so-called 12-day war of June last year, the intelligence agencies of USA they estimated that Iran could be in a position to make a nuclear bomb within three to six months, once it reached the critical threshold of uranium enrichment to 90%; that is, the level necessary for military use.
During that war, USA carried out a series of Selective attacks against key facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear programin close coordination with Israel. The operation combined strategic bombers such as the B-2 Spirit with support fighters and precision missiles.
A US B-2 Spirit bomber launching a JASSM missile. (Public domain).
The US bombing of Fordow. (AFP).
According to reports, high-penetration bunker buster bombs were used, designed to reach fortified underground facilities, as well as precision-guided munitions against critical infrastructure, including enrichment plants and research centers associated with the nuclear cycle.
After the attacks, Both the United States and Israel offered initially blunt assessments, noting that “significant damage” had been inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. and that some key capabilities had been degraded. However, subsequent intelligence analyzes qualified that balance.
In the current war that began on February 28, the attacks by the United States and Israel They focused on conventional military targets. But key nuclear infrastructure was also hit, although without the same intensity as last year’s bombings.
The key to the fact that Iran’s nuclear program has not been completely degraded lies in the reserves of enriched uranium it has and which are believed to remain intact.
For analysts consulted by Reuters, the Iranian nuclear program will be stopped only if its nuclear weapons are seized or destroyed. highly enriched uranium reserves. As long as that material remains available, Tehran preserves the base to advance towards a nuclear bomb.
Limited damage to Iranian nuclear program
Iran’s nuclear facilities. (AFP).
The international analyst Roberto Heimovits explains to The Commerce that the war of June 2025 did manage to delay the Iranian nuclear advance, but only in a limited way. “Before that war, Iran was weeks, or months, away from being able to obtain a bomb; what was achieved was to extend that period to between nine and twelve months”he points out.
However, he maintains that if it is confirmed that the damage is actually limited and that Tehran is one year late in obtaining the atomic bomb, The final outcome of the current war would be worrying for the United States and Israel.
“If this new war has not managed to extend the Iranian nuclear deadline, we would be facing a very serious situation”he warns.
“This would be an example of how numerous tactical successes—the bombings, the elimination of leaders—do not necessarily translate into strategic success,” says Heimovits.
The key factor: uranium and centrifuges
The uranium enrichment process. (AFP).
The analyst emphasizes that Iran’s nuclear capacity depends on two critical variables: the volume of enriched uranium and the infrastructure to process it.
“Iran It would have about 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%, it is only one step away from the level necessary for a bomb. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, that could be enough for several nuclear weapons, about ten,” explains.
In that context, The central question is how many centrifuges – the key machines for this process – have survived the bombings.. Heimovits says it is not easy to replace them quickly due to the industrial complexity involved. However, if enough equipment remains operational, Iran could significantly shorten the deadlines and lower the estimated year for you to own the pump.
“If they can save enough centrifuges and maintain access to highly enriched uranium, they could reach a bomb in a matter of months,” warns.
Risk of strategic victory for Iran
United States President Donald Trump answers questions from the press during the signing of an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on April 30, 2026. (EFE/EPA/AARON SCHWARTZ)
The scenario described by the Reuters report poses, in geopolitical terms, a potentially adverse outcome for the United States and Israel. “If the war ends without further damaging Iran’s nuclear capabilities, that would be a great victory for Iran,” Heimovits maintains.
In his opinion, this would not only imply a strategic defeat for Washington, but would increase the risks for Israel, given Tehran’s hostile rhetoric. Besides, could trigger a nuclear race in the Middle East.
“Countries like United Arab Emirateswhich have been attacked during the conflict, could seek to develop their own nuclear capacity as a security measure,” warns.
The fate of uranium: critical point in future negotiations
A photograph distributed by the Iranian presidential office on April 10, 2021 shows an engineer inside the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. (AFP).
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Another key element is the destination of the stock of highly enriched uranium, that could remain intact despite the attacks. Its eventual delivery or international control will be one of the axes of any future negotiations.
Heimovits considers that the decision of Iran will depend, to a large extent, on the credibility of US threats. If the government of donald trump manages to convince Tehran that it is willing to resume the war, the chances of an agreement increase.
“If Iran perceives that the threats are credible, it could accept a pact similar to that of 2015, with verifiable supervision,” explains. “But if you believe that the United States is not willing to escalate—due to internal political factors such as the price of oil or the elections—then you could choose to continue your program.”.
In this scenario, the analyst concludes, the result of the current phase of the conflict will not only define the immediate strategic balance, but also the future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime in the region.
