US President Donald Trump is facing a deadline that expires on Friday, May 1, to end the war with Iran or to justify its extension to Congress, but that date will most likely pass without changing the course of the conflict that has turned into a standoff over maritime routes, Reuters writes today.
The end of the war seems very unlikely, according to Reuters.
Instead, analysts and congressional aides said they expected Trump to either notify Congress that he planned a 30-day extension, or to ignore the deadline, with his administration arguing that the current ceasefire with Tehran marked the end of the conflict.
Like most politics in a deeply divided Congress, war powers have become a highly partisan issue, with opposition Democrats urging Congress to reassert its constitutional right to declare war while Republicans accuse Democrats of trying to use the War Powers Act to weaken Trump.
Since the start of the war on February 28, Democrats have repeatedly tried to pass resolutions that would force Trump to withdraw US forces or get congressional approval. But Trump’s Republicans, who hold narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, almost unanimously rejected them.
According to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, the US president can conduct military action for only 60 days before ending it, asking Congress for authorization, or requesting a 30-day extension due to “imminent military necessity relating to the security of the United States Armed Forces.”
The conflict with Iran began on February 28, when Israel and the United States of America (USA) launched airstrikes against Iran. Trump formally notified Congress of the conflict 48 hours later, as required by law, starting the 60-day deadline that expires on May 1.
A fragile ceasefire
Trump is due to be briefed today on plans for new military strikes on Iran to force it to negotiate an end to the conflict, a US official told Reuters.
If the fighting continues, Trump can tell lawmakers he has triggered a new 60-day deadline, something presidents from both parties have done repeatedly since Congress passed the War Powers Act, despite then-President Richard Nixon’s veto, in response to the Vietnam War.
That conflict was not approved by Congress either.
Iran announced today that if Washington renews its attacks, it will respond with “long and painful strikes” on American positions, which complicates Washington’s hopes of forming an international coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Polls show that war with Iran is unpopular among Americans, six months ahead of the November elections that will determine who controls Congress next year.
Trump’s approval rating fell this month to the lowest level of his current term, while Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with the cost of living and blame the war for higher prices.
However, Trump remains firmly in control of his party and few Republicans have opposed his policies. In addition, Republicans strongly support Israel, which is also attacking Iran, and welcome the weakening of Iran, the bitter enemy of the US.
“It’s a partisan divide, plain and simple,” said Christopher Preble, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. “Republicans refuse to defy the president, that’s just the way it is.”
“Active Conversations”
The White House has not said how it plans to proceed, or whether it will ask Congress to authorize the use of military force against Iran.
“The administration is in active discussions with Capitol Hill on this issue. Members of Congress trying to score political points by usurping the commander-in-chief’s authority would only undermine the U.S. military overseas, which no elected official should want,” a White House official said on condition of anonymity, according to Reuters.
The US Constitution stipulates that only Congress, not the president, can declare war, but that restriction does not apply to short-term operations or to countering immediate threats.
Several Republicans who have so far voted against the war powers resolutions said they may reconsider their position after May 1.
Republican Senator John Curtis from Utah published an essay in which he stated that he supports Trump’s moves, but that he would not support the continuation of military actions after the deadline without the approval of Congress.
Others, however, said they wanted to wait before acting.
Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader in the Senate, said it would be “ideal” if Washington and Tehran could reach a peace deal, although he told reporters he did not rule out a possible vote to authorize war.
“We’re listening, obviously we’re trying to stay involved with what’s going on and we’re getting regular updates from the administration on progress,” Thune told reporters.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York was one of the sponsors of the resolutions calling for an end to the war.
“Republicans know that Trump’s conduct of this war is a disaster. They see how much the American people are suffering now,” he said in a speech in the Senate, referring to the sharp rise in the prices of gasoline and other products.
“How many war powers resolutions do Democrats have to propose before Senate Republicans do the right thing?” Schumer asked.
