U.S. economist Roman Sheremet of Ukrainian origin has published a post on the “X” website in which, referring to the statement of the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko, he clearly explains Russia’s losses and gains if it attacks the Baltic States.
Attack on the Baltic States is entirely believable, and here’s why. There are at least three reasons.
First and foremost: Russia is not risking anything
Regardless of how the events related to the occupation of the Baltic states develop, Russia will not get worse. Sanctions are already in place. Europe is no longer buying its oil and gas. Weapons are supplied to Ukraine.
From a purely military point of view, Russia is also not risking anything. It has nuclear weapons, so if it wins and occupies the Baltic states or even part of them, no one will be able to push it out.
But if it loses, it will not lose its territory. It will simply retreat to its borders, and NATO will not invade Russian territory precisely because of the same nukes.
So why not give it a try?
The second reason: the aims of the war.
Russia’s goals extend far beyond the occupation of the Baltic states. First, Russia is interested in weakening or disrupting NATO and the EU. From this point of view, any territorial gain in the Baltic States will be considered a victory.
Even if Russia doesn’t capture Vilnius or Tallinn, but only a few border villages, it will still be a victory because it will show NATO’s inability to defend its members.
So again, why not give it a try?
The third reason: Russia has sufficient forces and resources in a potential conflict zone to carry out military tasks and achieve an acceptable result.
The Leningrad Military District has about 70,000 combat-ready soldiers who can easily be reinforced with reserves from the Ukrainian front. This army is mechanized, with about 700 tanks and a large amount of armored vehicles.
The drone component, which has practically no real equivalent in NATO and which can significantly change the balance of forces in the event of an invasion, should be singled out.
If you have enough strength, why not try?
Thus, we are currently faced with the following situation: Russia has enough forces and resources to achieve its goals in the Baltic States, and it has no bad scenarios in any development of events.
The situation is very similar to what it was before the invasion of Ukraine, especially given the law allowing Putin to “protect Russians abroad,” which was quickly passed by the State Duma.
The Baltic countries have helped us more than anyone else, so I sincerely hope that our friends will not face war.But in order to keep the peace, it is necessary to prepare for a great war. It is very good that our Baltic friends have learned from Ukraine’s mistakes and have built defense lines and fortifications to repel the invasion. I really hope that Russia will grind its teeth against the Baltics, as it did against Ukraine.
