When energy prices shoot up and stay up, governments lose elections. The European Union’s 27 leaders did not need to be reminded of that political reality when they gathered in Nicosia for the second day of a summit hosted by Cyprus.
Europe played no part in starting the war in Iran, but it has found itself paying for the conflict that US president Donald Trump seems unable to get himself out of.
European countries with close ties to the region fear the war will spread outwards and destabilise the whole Middle East. EU states near Russia worry Iran will pull the focus from the fighting in Ukraine. Everybody is concerned about surging fuel costs and energy bills.
“I think that most [European] leaders have already said that this is not our war. I think what matters now is how do we find a solution,” said Spain’s left-wing prime minister Pedro Sánchez on his way to the European Council huddle on Friday.
The problem is that European governments don’t hold any influence over Tehran or Washington.
The Trump factor means there is always the possibility the war could spin in another unexpected direction. The US president said he does not want to “rush” himself into a deal with Iran.
Meanwhile, EU states have to sit and count the cost of the global shock to oil and gas prices.
Officials have already begun nervously talking about the next winter. At a time when they would normally be replenishing gas storage in advance of the colder months, the economic prognosis of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz shutdown by Iran is concerning.
There was “a lot of pessimism” around the table where EU leaders had a working dinner in Ayia Napa on Thursday evening, said Taoiseach Micheál Martin.
Then there is the war on the European Continent. “I’m more focused, as you can imagine, on the eastern flank,” said Polish prime minister Donald Tusk.
Ukraine, Iran, and the shifting nature of the transatlantic alliance all combined to leave Europe in a “dangerous situation”, warned Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen. “Once again, we have to handle many different crises at the same time.”
The strategy seems to involve crossing fingers while hoping Trump strikes a peace agreement with the Iranian regime soon, which restarts the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf.
The Trump administration continues to brood about the lack of support it has received from European allies. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth warned European countries the “time for free riding is over”, a common Trump line of attack chastising other Nato members for their low spending on defence.
“We are not counting on Europe, but they need the Strait of Hormuz much more than we do and might want to start doing less talking and having less fancy conferences in Europe and get in a boat,” Hegseth told a Pentagon press conference.
In another sign of the strain on the EU-US alliance, Tusk, one of the most Atlanticist leaders, said the biggest question facing Europe is whether the US could be relied upon to honour its obligations to the rest of Nato in the event of a Russian attack.
The rift in the transatlantic relationship is looking more and more like a chasm.
