The Terrible Child, a chronicle by Fernando Vivas about the Government’s actions against the FEN in Peru

Of course, Keiko It is the insecure voice of a government that knows it will be overwhelmed, but this does not mean that public opinion is going to blame it for the disaster. The important thing, for its political sustainability, is that it is perceived that it does and will do what it can. PPK, although with a smaller Niño, achieved it in 2017. There was even a slogan, ‘One Force’, that was agitated at that time. On this occasion, the communication campaigns are taking a long time to arrive. I have been informed that they will begin in a few days.

The Minister of Health, Luis Dyer, days after Keiko’s warning, added salt and pepper, admitting that his sector was going to be overwhelmed no matter how much prevention he does. Abraham Levy, the ‘climate man’, began to repeat in public what he had said in private meetings with authorities and businessmen: “no living Peruvian has seen what we are going to see.” It sounds more terrible than Keiko, but it is historically sustainable. The last meganiño with a devastating global impact, with floods on some sides, and drought and famine on others, occurred between 1877 and 1878.

We cannot measure its intensity as we now measure sea temperature and millimeters of rain per square meter. From a previous child, from 1720, the ruins of the temples that were buried in Zaña still appear. I hope Leo XIV remembers it in situ, since Zaña is on his itinerary. The one from 1870 is studied as a megachild comparable to this one, which caused around 50 million deaths worldwide. Now we are much more vulnerable people, but there is also more infrastructure and technology to forecast, prevent and mitigate impacts. The government has to show that, although it has not received much from its predecessors, it has gathered what it can.

I spoke with the Minister of Agriculture, Marco Vinelli, who is also, since August 12, the president of the National Commission for Risk Management of the El Niño Phenomenon. Another candidate was the Minister of Defense, Rafael Belaúnde, as was Jorge Nieto when he was PPK’s ‘mindef’ during the summer of 2017. But, Keiko and Luis Galarreta preferred to trust a cadre very close to the party, Vinelli, who had already coordinated the government plan and the transfer of ministries. The minister told me, “the priorities are clear from the first moment. First, human lives. Second, homes. Third, public infrastructure. Therefore, to save lives, we began by cleaning the channels of the most important rivers in the North.”

The emblematic case of cleanup is that of the Piura River, which includes the Los Ejidos dam, 4 km upstream from the city. Today, the channel does not look threatening, but when heavy rains arrive, it could overflow. If the river is contained, the city could still be severely punished by the rain. “It was expected that the ‘Reconstruction with Changes’ (program launched in 2017) would carry out larger works, such as the sewerage of Piura and Tumbes; but only the SARE were carried out, of which we have already repaired several so that they operate,” Vinelli told me.

In reality, the SARE (Alternative Stormwater Collection and Evacuation System) were installed as part of the preventive measures against El Niño of 2023-2024. They are underground tanks that store rainwater which is then pumped into a river or canals. Although they operate in full downpour, it always exceeds the pumping capacity. The effect is only noticeable after the rain, when the floods reduce. There are some ‘Sares’ in blind basins (low floodplains) in Tumbes, Piura, Chiclayo and other cities. “In Lima there are none,” says Marco, “but we have acquired hydrojets, which are mobile equipment that can pump where necessary.”

There are no accurate forecasts of extraordinary rains in Lima. The 17mm of January 15, 1970 remains the unbeatable record measured in Lima and was not caused by El Niño but by other atmospheric effects. It is a small thing for rainy cities, but in Lima it would be a scandal and a disaster. The Geophysical Institute cites a history of 12mm in El Niño of 1925. The rains of March 2023, during Cyclone Yaku, once reached 5mm in La Molina and 3mm in several areas of Lima. There were no major consequences. In 1970 the city was smaller; Today many people live on the slopes of hills and active ravines. Getting close to the 17mm record would cause considerable damage.

On the other hand, I asked the minister if we can trust Sedapal when it says that the La Atarjea plant is capable of processing the excess dirty water that will flow through the Rímac River. “Yes, we have filters that we didn’t have before, with great capacity,” says the minister.

Vinelli has an answer to give momentary peace of mind on several fronts. When I tell him that the Panamericana will be interrupted in several sections, like other penetration highways, he says, very sure of himself: “We have around 80 Bailey bridges, which can be installed in 3 days.” Carlos Neuhaus, who chairs the board of the consortium created by the private sector to combat the Enfant Terrible, made a note to me about this: “We have to make sure that the Baileys are already available in some of the critical places where bridges can be expected to fall.” Of course, if they have to move after the disaster has occurred, there are more days of incommunication.

Neuhaus is skilled at coordinating private sector initiatives, which will provide not only financial support but machinery, food, water and medicine, among other things. “There are large companies that will worry, first of all, about their area of ​​influence. For example, Southern is going to support Tacna, Moquegua and part of Arequipa; the Romero Group is helping to clear the Piura River upstream of Los Ejidos,” Carlos tells me.

For now, hundreds of sandbags have already been transported on Latam planes and the commercial fishing fleet has been asked to carry out cabotage between small ports where navy vessels do not enter. Vinelli also stressed to me that there will be a maritime corridor that will be able to transport everything from people to supplies and machinery. The same sea whose temperature is the physical origin of the calamity will be calm and safe for navigation, although its level has risen several centimeters due to thermal expansion. If this is combined with abnormal waves, it is a danger for those who live near the shore.

“Our goal is to articulate the offer of help from the private sector with the needs of the public sector,” concludes Carlos. With the advice of Mace (the British company that managed the government-to-government contract for the 2019 Pan American Games), a PMO (Project Management Office) has been installed in Midagri (Ministry of Agriculture) itself, which is the Vinelli barracks. It is directed by Jorge Valenzuela, who already had a similar mission during the private sector’s support for anti-Covid vaccination. Added to all this is the Hombro con Hombro association, directed by Juan Manuel Arribas, as a key actor.

Vaccines exist as an elusive and insufficient good. Vaccination has been privileged only for young people between 10 and 20 years old in critical areas, not because they are the most vulnerable age group, but because of the recommendation of the WHO (World Health Organization), which estimates different factors that make it more convenient to start there when vaccines are not available for everyone. It is planned to acquire more for other segments and territories (in Lima only vaccinations are being carried out in San Juan de Lurigancho); but it must be taken into account that these are two doses that are given three months apart. Those who were vaccinated when the campaign began in September will be able to receive their second dose in November, but those who are vaccinated between November and December will go through the hardest of the onslaught barely protected with one dose.

A source told me off-screen that there is a plan B to resort to massive fumigation that kills the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which causes dengue and other diseases. The private sector is looking for small planes to spray some areas from the air. Between the supplementary credit of S/.8,228 million approved by the Bicameral Budget Commission and the S/.18,000 million announced by the Minister of Economy, to alleviate the child – and the inevitable contraction of the economy – there are financial backs. S/.2,500 million will be used in direct subsidies to the hardest hit families and S/.15,000 million will be allocated to the reconstruction of infrastructure and housing, which will also be a countercyclical injection to boost employment and the market with public investment.

There is no certainty in the forecasts. It is not known if the Piura River will overflow over the city despite its cleanliness, nor if Tumbes will bear the brunt, nor if there will be extraordinary rain in Lima. We want to think that all this will not happen but we must prepare ourselves in case it happens. On the other hand, fears and prevention cannot be confined to the coast. The southern mountains, where drought is predicted, are demanding attention.

The spokesperson for the Conveagro farmers’ union, Luis Cruz Cuadros, has painted a terrible picture with potato production and other products that do not have the characteristic flowering of this season and therefore a good part of the harvest will be lost. Vinelli tells me that for now the Santa Anita wholesale market is receiving the 10,000 tons of food it usually receives per day. But we do not know when this will be altered due to road interruptions and shortages of some basic products. Both the public and private sectors are calibrating aid for the mountains, where hunger can be the silent evil.

The government’s bitter test will not only be the attention to the child during its attack, but also the efficiency in carrying out the subsequent reconstruction. The so-called Reconstruction With Change after the FEN of 2017 was not, nor was the FORSUR that Alan García launched after the Pisco earthquake in 2007. The economic recovery after the pandemic has been slower than in other countries in the region, in part due to the political instability that we suffered in the last five years. If we truly enter a new period of stability and ‘institutional’, as the president often boasts, there will be no excuse against efficiency.