The economic index of the GKI Economic Research Institute rose significantly in April, reaching a 27-month high; business and consumer expectations have also improved, senior researcher Raymund Petz explained at the GKI’s online press conference on Thursday.
He added that the survey was conducted in the first half of April, before the elections, and thus reflects general expectations but not the effects of the change in government.
The industrial confidence index rose significantly by four points, approaching the peak reached in October/November of last year. The construction industry remains the most pessimistic sector; after a long period of decline, it has shown an upward trend since the middle of last year, though the fluctuations are quite large, the researcher noted.
The trade index has been on an upward trend for four months; in connection with the rise in the consumer confidence index, retailers perceived an improvement in the outlook.
In April, the trade index rose by five points; the GKI has not recorded such a significant increase within a single month in a long time,
said Petz. Traditionally, the business services sector is the most optimistic; the index rose more modestly this month, namely by one point. Nevertheless, this sector remains the most confident, and in April, the manufacturing sector caught up with it, he added.
GKI also provides an outlook on employment expectations for the next three months: According to the April survey, 8% of companies plan to increase their workforce, while 11% plan to reduce it; in the construction and retail sectors, those planning staff cuts are in the majority. 35% of companies would like to raise prices, and about 5% would lower them. In a sector-by-sector comparison, the price indicator is particularly high in retail, but across all sectors, companies aiming for a price increase are in the majority, Petz explained.
Attila Udvardi, senior researcher at GKI, made it clear:
The index for April is above the average calculated for the 2019–2026 period and signals an above-average positive sentiment.
The outlook for the country’s economic situation has improved; among the sub-indices of the consumer confidence index, the sub-index reflecting expectations for the next 12 months has shown an upward trend over the past year. In contrast, the indices relating to personal finances, financial situation, saving, and the purchase of durable consumer goods have barely increased over the past two years, according to the researcher.
Via MTI; Featured image: MTI/Máthé Zoltán
