That influence has limits, however. Critics inside Iran have complained about the relatively modest level of Chinese non-oil trade and investment since the two countries signed a 25-year cooperation pact in 2021, particularly compared with China’s growing investment commitments in Persian Gulf Arab states.
China remains a factor Tehran cannot afford to ignore, but two of the Iranian sources said Beijing’s interests were only one consideration among many. Iran’s decisions are shaped by competing strategic, economic and political priorities, they said.
“Tehran and Beijing need each other. China is a factor Tehran cannot ignore, and Beijing wants Hormuz reopened and Red Sea shipping secured,” the Western diplomat said.
Analysts say the key test will be whether China is prepared to attach consequences to its demands. Ultimately, they say, the clearest sign of Beijing’s resolve would be evidence that it is willing to use its leverage over Tehran.
(Additional reporting by Liz Lee in Beijing and Timour Azhari in Riyadh, Writing by Parisa Hafezi, Editing by Angus McDowall and Timothy Heritage)
