MOSCOW, June 18. /TASS/. The Europeans appear set to bend US President Donald Trump to toughen his stance on Russia, as Moscow and Tehran move to coordinate their actions at the UN to lift sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia has cautioned against continued militarization of Greenland. These stories topped Thursday’s headlines in Russia.
US President Donald Trump is trying to resolve the Ukraine conflict and is reluctant to assess actions by his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, even as he is ready to consider putting more sanctions on Moscow and supplying missiles, including manufacturing air defense missiles for the Patriot system under license in Ukraine, the US leader himself said at a news conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17.
He specified that partial reintroduction of restrictions on Russian energy will depend on market price dynamics. It’s worth noting that, on Wednesday, the US Treasury did not extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil.
Shortly prior to that, on the night of June 16, G7 leaders released a joint statement on geopolitical issues in which they reaffirmed their “unwavering support for Ukraine” and agreed to increase “the delivery of air defense capacities,” and “long-range capabilities’ as well as to strengthen their sanctions on Russia, including on its oil and gas sector. On June 16, Trump held talks with Vladimir Zelensky.
The Europeans are seeking to make Trump reverse the understandings reached at his meeting with Putin in Anchorage in August 2025, Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. According to him, Brussels would like to introduce a new format of talks with their participation. “They advocate for a format without withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the rest of Donbass but with deployment of troops from the coalition of the willing in Ukraine,” the expert explained. The Europeans understand that if Trump adopts such a stance, this will actually disrupt talks, but they are not ready for a full cessation of negotiations either as they realize that Ukraine is losing, he argued.
“He is currently facing a much weaker internal and external political situation than at the Anchorage meeting,” Suslov continued. For example, he can no longer threaten Kiev with reduced aid as the bulk of it now comes from the EU. In addition, Trump is looking for European support in the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Europeans are pursuing the goal of buying Trump on Ukraine and putting pressure on Putin through him, while also strengthening Zelensky’s negotiating position, but they are unwilling to disrupt talks, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, maintained. As regards the prospect of the Europeans eventually sitting down to the negotiating table, this seems possible as the US cannot ignore its key allies in the region, despite the accumulated differences. “Trump will continue to maneuver further down the road. His goals are still the same: he is still seeking a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. And if this requires involving the Europeans, he could perhaps propose these ideas to Putin. For if Russia actually views the EU as an indirect party to the conflict, a durable peace is unlikely to be agreed without the EU,” Koshkin concluded.
Moscow and Tehran are coordinating their actions at the United Nations to lift all sanctions on Iran, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. They actually secured the support of 16 additional states here. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Iran and the United States last night includes a provision on lifting restrictions. A 60-day period of talks will begin next, at which Tehran will concentrate on the nuclear problem and sanctions, the Islamic Republic’s MFA said. However, given the number of sanctions, this may turn into a very complicated legal process. For the time being, only pinpoint energy waivers that will greatly facilitate oil sales for Iran seem more likely.
On Wednesday night, two days ahead of the scheduled date, the United States and Iran separately signed a pre-agreed MoU. Without taking account of waivers post the 2015 nuclear deal, it can be said that the Islamic Republic has been under strict restrictions since its foundation, or for almost half a century already.
Meanwhile, Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, recently hosted a meeting of the Group of Friends in Defense of the UN Charter. Apart from Russia and Iran, it was attended by 16 other countries, including China. Among other topics, the Group has constantly focused on countering unlawful sanctions, including on Iran.
In general, lifting restrictions still seems to be the most challenging process, in light of their number. More than 6,000 sanctions have been imposed on Iran – Russia alone is under even more sanctions. The bulk of those was imposed by the United States. And cancelling relevant UN Security Council resolutions will obviously cause the most difficulties. A new resolution will be needed for this. And given the dozens of failed attempts at the UN to adopt at least some resolutions, not to mention the split in the Security Council, this will constitute the biggest challenge in purely technical terms.
Only the lifting of energy sanctions can be realistic in the near future, experts say. “Restrictions on ship freight, tanker insurance, logistics operations, and financial transactions in the oil industry and with hydrocarbons may be lifted,” Yekaterina Arapova, head of a research program at the Institute of International Research at MGIMO University, told Izvestia.
Despite the fact that Iran cannot currently sell all the oil it can produce amid the sanctions, the country is among the top 10 major exporters, therefore if operations with crude oil are greenlighted, this may seriously change not only the republic’s economy but also the situation on global markets. “If sanctions are lifted on Tehran, then it will not make much sense for China to buy exclusively Iranian oil. And there will remain only one supplier who could offer a discount due to the sanctions pressure, and that is Russia. The Americans have already `torn Venezuela away’ from China. Moreover, the increased demand from China will intensify competition for Russian oil with India, and this will enable Russia to slash the discount,” Igor Yushkov, leading expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, told Izvestia.
Moscow has been recording the militarization of Greenland, which is taking place under the guise of claims about a growing Russian military threat, Russian Ambassador to Copenhagen Vladimir Barbin told Izvestia. According to him, the Arctic, which once was a region of low tensions and cooperation, is turning into a zone of confrontation due to NATO’s efforts. Denmark, for one, is looking to deploy F-35 fighter jets to the island. In addition, Arctic-class frigates and patrol vessels, as well as transport and patrol aircraft, and long-range UAVs will be acquired.
The conflict around Greenland, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s claims to the island, is not over. According to the Russian diplomat, the United States explains its claims to ownership of Greenland by saying that Denmark has not paid enough attention to defense on the island.
In the next five years, the course toward the gradual militarization of the Arctic will continue, Alexander Sporshev, senior lecturer at the Department of European and International Law at the Law Faculty of the National Research University, argued. Moreover, this will not so much involve a massive deployment of troops but the development of dual-purpose infrastructure: radar stations, surveillance systems and maritime sensors, UAVs, airfields, patrol aircraft and naval groups, he added.
And the militarization will mostly be driven by the strategic rivalry between Russia and NATO as well as China’s growing interest in the Arctic. Therefore, even after a new administration comes to Washington or European governments reshuffle, the general policy course is unlikely to change significantly, Sporshev added.
“The formation of a closed ring of bases around Northern Russia is emerging as a key risk. The expansion of US and NATO’s control over Greenland fits into the configuration of encircling Russia strategically in the Arctic and North Atlantic directions,” Pavel Anisimov, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at Russian State Humanitarian University, known as RGGU, explained to Izvestia.
The Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System decided to hold the key rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in the regulator’s first move under Kevin Warsh, who was appointed the Fed’s new Chair on May 13.
Warsh previously worked at the Fed in 2006-2011. Not only did he live through two different administrations – a Republican of George Bush Jr. and a Democrat administration under Barack Obama, he also experienced quite a turbulent period in the US economy during the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Since the start of Trump’s second tenure, the key rate has been lowered three times – from 4.5% in August 2025 to 3.75% in December 2025. This monetary easing came amid Trump’s incessant criticism of Jerome Powell, whom he himself nominated as Fed chair in his first presidency in 2017-2021.
If back in 2025 inflation spiked amid the trade wars, this year it has been rising since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28.
Warsh will be guided by major economic indicators, especially inflation and unemployment, further down the road too, Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to him, even as Warsh is close to Trump, the US leader will not be able to bend the Fed to his will. “The new chair will largely continue Powell’s course toward prudent monetary policy. Trump may not like it, but he does not actually have levers of influence here,” the expert emphasized.
Formally, neither inflation nor unemployment data is conducive to a rate cut at this stage, Maxim Cherkashin, Research Fellow at the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. However, the expert highlighted Warsh’s desire to return to the practice of communicating the Fed’s intentions to the market as little as possible. “If he is consistent enough in translating his position into policy, we may see even more surprises in the future. However, we shouldn’t expect a rate cut even then either,” Cherkashin emphasized.
Despite the fact that global coal demand will decline, Russian coal still has export potential, experts at the Gaidar Institute argue. These opportunities include expanding supplies to India and the broader Asian market. At the same time, researchers admit that the competitiveness of Russian coal is significantly constrained by sanctions risks and domestic logistical constraints.
Overall, global demand for coal will dwindle. According to estimates, by 2035 coal demand globally will shrink by more than 5% from the 2023 level and fall by 30% by 2050.
The share of coal in global primary energy demand will halve from 30% in 2023 to 15% in 2050, Antonina Levchenko, a research fellow at the Gaidar Institute’s Laboratory of Industry Markets and Infrastructure, and Maria Goronovich, a junior research fellow at the same laboratory, wrote. And, the experts argued, this decline will be driven by China, among other markets: its share in global coal consumption will fall sharply to 20% by 2035.
Russian coal exports to this East Asian country too have dropped, with Russia competing against Indonesia, Australia, and Mongolia in the Chinese market.
Experts view the Indian market as more promising for Russia. “Russian coal has a significant potential for expanding its presence in the Indian market due to its price advantage and acceptable quality characteristics,” the Gaidar Institute noted.
Russia will need to consistently reorient itself toward markets and segments with stable demand, such as coking coal in China and India, the experts continued, while simultaneously diversifying its logistics routes and removing tariff barriers.
While there remains potential for growth in Russian coal exports, including to the Indian market, it will be limited and rather niche, agrees Dmitry Yevdokimov, research fellow at the Presidential Academy’s Center for Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics, argued in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
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