MOSCOW, June 19. /TASS/. Experts raise doubts over Iran and US capacity to prevent a military conflict; Russia sees no EU willingness to engage in dialogue; and Moscow secures another foreign policy victory at the Russia-ASEAN summit. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Experts question Iran, US ability to avert military conflict
The presidents of the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding remotely. According to the document, its signing means, among other things, an end to military operations on all fronts and the lifting of the US naval blockade. Many issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, are expected to be discussed during negotiations on a final agreement, Vedomosti reports.
The viability of the memorandum is hard to assess at this point, Alexey Yurk, a researcher with the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted. On the one hand, neither party is interested in a full-scale resumption of hostilities because they are unable to achieve their goals through military force. On the other, the document is not legally binding and is also skewed in favor of Iran’s demands.
“That said, the US is likely to seek to use any window of opportunity to change the situation to its advantage. Washington won’t need any special excuse. It will be enough for Donald Trump to once again accuse Iran of failing to comply with the agreement or delaying talks,” the political scientist said.
Yurk does not rule out that a legally binding agreement could eventually be reached. But in order to do so, the parties will have to work hard to develop a clearly-worded document. Moreover, much will depend on how developments in the region and around the world unfold, the expert emphasized.
Any future agreement will certainly be fragile, Murad Sadygzade, head of the Center for Middle East Research, told Izvestia. “Rather than coming to an end, the conflict is more likely to be frozen until the end of the year, I believe. The thing to understand is that the Middle East theater is only part of a broader process of global transformation and confrontation. We are moving closer to a peak and the situation is not going to improve,” the expert stressed.
Moscow sees no signs of the European Union’s willingness to launch dialogue with Russia, including on Ukraine, a Russian Foreign Ministry official told Izvestia. EU leaders appear divided on the issue: ahead of the June 18-19 summit, officials in Italy and Austria called for establishing contact, while the Dutch prime minister said that strengthening Kiev’s positions on the battlefield should remain a priority.
Brussels is once again making a mistake, as European politicians prefer to talk about Russia rather than with it, Vladislav Maslennikov, a department director at the Russian Foreign Ministry, pointed out. Experts are confident that EU countries are only buying time and aren’t truly interested in negotiations with Russia, which is why they are not rushing to appoint a negotiator in charge of establishing dialogue with Moscow.
“The Europeans can see that the launch of dialogue with Russia is long overdue, that the Americans are all for it and that Russia is ready to talk with Brussels. However, European Union leaders believe, for some reason, that Russia is now losing the conflict, and that the West has been given another chance to strengthen Ukraine’s positions,” said Alexander Rahr, German political scientist and chairman of the Eurasian Society. “The European Union is fully on Ukraine’s side, unlike the United States, which is trying to play the role of a neutral mediator. In contrast, European leaders seek to ‘strangle’ Russia with new sanctions,” Rahr added.
The agenda of the current EU summit includes the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. New restrictions may target the energy sector, financial services, and cryptocurrency transactions, and for the first time could be extended to fishing.
All in all, the European Union’s pressure of sanctions is a new norm that will exist regardless of how the situation develops in other areas, Yegor Sergeyev, senior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes. “No one plans to abandon this policy because it’s a new instrument of competition and a convenient means of influencing counterparts,” the analyst stressed.
Media: Russia, ASEAN nations discuss cooperation across multiple sectors
A Russia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit has taken place in Kazan. The parties agreed to boost dialogue in order to effectively address challenges, Vedomosti notes.
Russia has largely benefited from the summit in terms of its image, demonstrating to the world that it’s not isolated, Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, pointed out. The energy sector remains the key area in relations between Russia and ASEAN, Maslov stressed. Furthermore, in Kazan, Southeast Asian nations, which have been significantly affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure, reached agreements on fertilizer supplies, in addition to energy deliveries.
The summit can be described as Russia’s foreign policy victory, Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov believes. Moscow places special attention on expanding its opportunities in ASEAN countries as it seeks to gain more options in food markets, the nuclear energy sector and weapons supplies, Kortunov specified. Besides, Moscow could also benefit from partnerships in areas where Russia is experiencing difficulties due to Western sanctions.
The very fact of the summit is crucial, Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov agrees. According to him, ASEAN remains an organisation capable of influencing the countries that are mostly either positive or neutral toward Russia. Moscow is only beginning to develop ties with ASEAN, and now, the process has gained a certain momentum.
Russia is important for ASEAN countries as a balancer amid increasing competition between China and the United States, Yelena Pyltshina, senior researcher with the Vietnam Studies Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, told Izvestia. In her view, it’s not yet correct to say that Moscow can challenge China, the US, Japan or the European Union in Southeast Asian economies. Still, cooperation may develop in certain niches, where Russia has advantages, the expert said. In this regard, she mentioned the energy sector, the steel industry, fertilizers, and food products.
Media: Iran-US ceasefire may disrupt OPEC+ agreement
If the US-Iran ceasefire really paves the way for restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market is likely to see a rapid surge in supplies from Gulf countries. Washington’s move to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil exports could further complicate the situation. Potential outcomes include a supply surplus, the collapse of the OPEC+ deal, and a price war, with participating countries competing for market share, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, points out that the pace of restoring Middle Eastern oil supplies will depend on the specifics of oil fields and the logistics capacity of ports. The expert believes it may take 60 to 90 days to fully recover output to the level of OPEC+ quotas. In his opinion, rising supplies will not cause the OPEC+ group to collapse but its influence on the market will decline, while competition between its participants will increase. Russia and Saudi Arabia – key members of the alliance and major exporters – will be the ones seeking to keep the group from falling apart.
An OPEC+ collapse would not benefit the majority of member countries, Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov agrees. If all producers were to sharply increase output, prices would fall further and the oil revenues of exporting countries would be affected more significantly. This is why OPEC+ members will try to continue coordinating their actions.
Meanwhile, discounts for Urals crude may increase now that the US license allowing Russian oil purchases has expired, which is going to add pressure amid reports of US-Iran agreements, said analysts interviewed by Kommersant. However, Financial University expert Igor Yushkov does not expect the expiration of the US license to have a major impact. In his view, a decline in global oil prices will negatively affect exporters’ revenues, while maritime transport costs could go down due to an increase in tanker fleet availability. Yushkov believes that Russia’s monthly export volumes will remain at current levels in June.
Russia’s grain harvest is likely to remain at last year’s level in the 2026-2027 season, making it possible for the country to retain its position among the world’s top three grain traders and remain the leading wheat exporter, Vedomosti writes, citing an Euler report.
Russia’s share in global wheat exports stands at about 20%. More than 100 countries import Russian grain, while key buyers of Russian wheat include Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran, Nikolay Kovalyov, senior consumer sector and e-commerce analyst at Euler, specified. The expert pointed to low production costs and cheap fertilizers as Russia’s strategic advantages.
Meanwhile, the economic situation of global farmers and traders is deteriorating, particularly in certain regions of the European Union, the United States, and Canada, Euler analysts note. In response to challenges, farmers are reducing cultivated areas, cutting fertilizer use, and delaying the renewal of agricultural equipment, Kovalyov said.
Grain and oil prices are showing a high degree of interdependence, while the conflict in the Middle East is creating a shock in terms of fertilizer supplies and rising energy prices for farmers, Euler experts stressed. Moreover, Middle Eastern countries are important global grain importers, accounting for a 20% share. Kovalyov expects that the risk of reduced fertilizer use will fully materialize over the next two seasons.
Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, estimates that Russia’s grain production will reach 142 million metric tons in the new season, while the export capacity will likely stand at 69.2 million tons. Kovalyov expects Russian grain export prices to rise by 10% year on year, largely in the second half of the year.
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