Ukraine’s growing long‑range strike capability has forced Russia’s leadership into difficult decisions because its air defenses cannot cover everything, Defense Ministry readiness department head Gert Kaju said.
Ukraine’s long‑range strikes hit two Russian space communications centers this week, facilities heavily used for military communications. Ukraine also struck oil refineries in Moscow, Tyumen and Orenburg regions, as well as fuel depots, including in occupied Crimea. In addition, Ukraine hit a factory in Voronezh region that produces missile components.
Kaju said Russia’s leadership must now make increasingly complex decisions as Ukraine expands its strike campaign.
Serious fuel shortage in Russia
“Since there are not enough air defense systems to cover everything, they must start prioritizing targets. That means accepting risks, leaving some sites unprotected and assuming they may be destroyed or disabled,” Kaju said.
Ukraine’s successful medium‑ and long‑range strikes have taken up to 20 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity offline. “As a result, Russia is facing a serious fuel shortage, and about 20 regions have imposed various fuel sales restrictions,” Kaju said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also acknowledged the impact of Ukraine’s long‑range strikes, and the government has been tasked with minimizing the effects, he added.
“Ukraine’s strategy in 2026 is to inflict greater losses on Russian forces, develop its precision‑strike capability and cripple Russia’s logistics. Long‑range strikes are also meant to significantly weaken Russia’s ability to sustain its war economy and push Russia to the negotiating table for serious talks,” Kaju said.
Russia carried out clearly fewer airstrikes
The number of Russian long‑range strikes dropped sharply over the past week, Kaju said.
“The intensity of Russia’s long‑range strikes fell significantly compared to earlier periods. Russia launched nearly 900 drones and 12 missiles. That is 35 percent fewer drones and 84 percent fewer missiles than in previous weeks,” he said.
Kaju added that past drops in long‑range strike intensity have usually been followed by large‑scale Russian attacks using a high volume of air‑launched weapons. “Now we will see whether, and when, such attacks take place,” he said.
Fighting along the front line remained at the same level as in previous weeks.
“Russia managed to advance toward Kupiansk in Kharkiv region and toward Sloviansk, Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces carried out counterattacks along almost the entire front line. Fighting in the so‑called gray zone is intense, and both sides are conducting not only defensive but also offensive operations,” Kaju said.
Russia continues to suffer heavy losses of up to 1,300 soldiers per day, including both killed and wounded.
The situation has become more difficult for Ukraine near the strategically important city of Kostyantynivka, which is part of a larger defensive belt, Kaju noted.
“Capturing this defensive belt is an important goal for Russia and is tied to its effort to seize Donbas. Ukraine is reinforcing its units in the area. It has also intensified medium‑range strikes in Donbas to disrupt Russia’s logistics,” Kaju said.
The effects are already visible, and Russia has been forced to pull units out of the area because of logistical problems, he added.
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