Temperatures are expected to fall across France next week – but the respite from June’s historic heatwave may be short-lived, with early warnings that temperatures are set to soar again in July.
Speaking on France Inter, the Minister of Ecological Transition, Monique Barbut, confirmed that a third heatwave in France in the first half of the summer, after the ones in late May and in the second half of June, was a credible scenario, saying: “There is a strong probability that from July 6th, we will return to extreme heat . . . until July 14th.”
Long-term forecasts have already raised the prospect that summer in France will be warmer than seasonal norms, and experts said that – even with the expected drop in temperatures next week, France is still well above season temperature averages.
Some computer models are already predicting a ‘canicule’ from around July 10th, peaking on July 14th – the date of France’s Fête Nationale.
However Météo France generally does not give detailed temperature predictions more than 10 days in advance.
La Chaîne Météo warned that “a new cold front could move in off the coast of the Iberian Peninsula. At the same time, a high-pressure system will relocate over Western Europe.”
This high-pressure system would block warm air over France, while the cold front to the west would pump hot air up from the sub-Sahara leading to “significantly higher temperatures” – effectively a re-run of the current heatwave.
Looking further ahead, the forecaster said that the prospect of a stormier August remained a possibility.
History has already shown that temperatures can change dramatically from one week to the next: in 2006, June and July were marked by sweltering heat, and August saw the arrival of wind, rain, and cooler temperatures. We just have to get through the rest of June and July first.
