The preliminary agreement that could end President Donald Trump’s four-month war with Iran is welcome but comes with difficult realities. Trump made a terrible mistake by starting this war. He carried it out recklessly and in open defiance of the law. The United States emerges weakened—militarily, diplomatically, and economically—and will pay a high strategic price in the coming years.
The details of the deal are unclear, but the framework that has been announced suggests that Trump has gotten few of the conditions he insisted he would get. It is a humiliating degradation for him and for the country he leads.
Since the war began, he said that the United States would achieve “total and complete victory” and that Iran must accept “unconditional surrender.” He hinted that a regime change would occur. He said Iran would not be allowed “any enrichment” of uranium and that “the United States, in collaboration with Iran, would unearth and remove all quasi-military-grade nuclear material” it already possesses and is underground.
None of this seems to be true. Iran’s hardline government remains in power. Details of the nuclear deal reportedly will be negotiated over the next two months, but the terms are likely to resemble those of the 2015 deal that President Barack Obama negotiated and which Trump canceled in 2018. He described Obama’s deal as the “worst deal in history” and said it put Iran on “the path to a nuclear weapon.” He criticized him for not forcing Iran to stop supporting terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and for easing economic sanctions. However, it appears that his destructive war will leave him with a similar deal.
Its greatest achievement within the framework of the ceasefire is the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global maritime traffic, which will end up lowering the prices of energy and other products. That, of course, is nothing more than a return to the pre-war status quo. Iran closed the strait in retaliation, to affect the world economy and increase political pressure on the United States. The move worked, and Iranian leaders now understand that they have a powerful economic weapon.
On balance, Iran emerges as the strategic winner of this four-month war. The country suffered substantial losses, including much of its navy, its air force, its military-industrial capacity and its political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was assassinated on the first day of the war. However, with the end of the war, Iranian leaders will be able to begin rebuilding the country.
The United States, for its part, appears weaker in the eyes of the world. The US military has proven unable to prevail against a much smaller adversary, even after depleting many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The result harms this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin repairing the damage, the United States would do well to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia that have deteriorated due to the military and economic effects of the war. The Pentagon will also have to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. It is unlikely that any of these issues will occur during President Trump’s term.
Before the US-Israeli attack began on February 28, the Iranian leadership had been through a very tough two and a half years. The government was much weaker than before the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, a group that Iran has long financed and advised. In response to that attack, Israel significantly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, another group allied to Iran. In Syria, a bloodthirsty Iranian-backed dictator was deposed without Iranian leaders doing much to try to save him. Israel and the United States made it clear that Iran’s air defenses and missile program were seemingly powerful but actually harmless when they bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities last summer, a setback for its nuclear program. Meanwhile, the Iranian currency continued to fall at a rapid rate and its economy was in ruins. Late last year, Iranians took to the streets to protest and the regime responded by killing thousands of protesters, if not tens of thousands.
All of these problems are still there, and Iran is still weaker than it was three years ago. But the war has given him an advantage that he did not have when 2026 began. His regime has shown that it can survive waves of attacks from its two biggest enemies. Its leaders have not had to abandon their nuclear ambitions. And they have learned that the rest of the world appears unwilling to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran decides to close the strait at some point in the coming months or years, what will Trump do in response?
We list these facts without satisfaction. Iran has been and continues to be a force of evil. It represses its people, especially political dissidents, women, people from the LGBTQ community, and religious minorities. It is a world leader in torture and executions, and has financed terrorism in its region and far beyond. Iran’s leaders have impoverished a country whose per capita income was above the world average until just a few years ago, in the 1970s.
The characteristic brutality of the Iranian regime should have been cause for the United States to think carefully and plan cautiously for any war. The history of modern American wars, especially in the Iran region, is filled with the arrogance that breeds defeat. However, Trump refrained from thoughtful planning at every step.
He accepted the optimistic view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who predicted that the Iranian regime would fall quickly. Trump dismissed the opinions of his advisers, who told him that Netanyahu’s prediction was absurd. Trump ignored the Constitution and refused to seek congressional approval for the war. He did not listen to European and Asian allies who opposed his war. He did not take into account Iran’s obvious ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. He made threats to destroy Iranian civilization that only undermined the moral authority of the United States.
For his sins, he has now accepted a peace agreement that everyone understands is a defeat for him. It is also a setback for the United States.
*This article was originally published in The New York Times.
