According to the online economy report, quoted by IRNA, in the last week of June, the Tehran Stock Exchange was the scene of one of its lowest periods of prosperity; A period in which the total index recorded new records with a significant acceleration and the market atmosphere moved away from the pessimism of the previous months. The market, which in recent months was affected by political risks, regional developments and uncertainty in the future of foreign relations, entered a new phase of optimism this week with the strengthening of expectations regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States.
Market activists believe that any political agreement can change the prospects of Iran’s economy. Reducing banking and commercial restrictions, facilitating financial transfers, increasing export capacity and finally improving the profitability of large listed companies are among the consequences that many investors have opened accounts for.
These expectations caused part of the funds to move from parallel markets such as gold and even fixed income funds to the stock market. The result of this change of direction was a significant increase in the value of transactions, a large influx of liquidity and a jump in the total stock market index.
The beginning of the week with a wave of demand
The week’s trading started with a heavy wave of demand. On the first trading day, the total stock market index crossed the 4.7 million mark with an increase of more than 100,000 units and the market was completely green. Many symbols were faced with buying queues and the arrival of more than 60 thousand billion tomans of real money was considered a sign of the return of investors’ confidence in the stock market.
In the meantime, the banking, automobile, metal and petrochemical industries attracted the most attention; Industries that can benefit the most from economic openings if foreign relations improve and political risks are reduced.
Fatah channel 4.8 million units on Sunday
The upward trend of the market continued on the second day of the week. The total index entered the channel of 4.8 million units with a growth of more than 120 thousand units. At the same time, the equal weight index also registered a significant growth; The issue that showed the rise of the market is not only limited to a few big symbols, and a large part of small and medium-sized companies also participate in this upward movement.
The continuous increase in liquidity and the growth of the value of small transactions in these days indicated the continuation of traders’ optimism about the future of the market.
The height of excitement on Monday
Monday can be considered the peak of market excitement this week. On this day, the total index reached the threshold of five million units with a jump of more than 160,000 units, and the record of real money entry was also broken. About 9 thousand billion tomans of real capital entered the market in just one day and the value of transactions reached unprecedented levels.
Banks, car manufacturers and investment companies were in the focus of investors’ attention. At the same time, part of the funds were withdrawn from the gold funds. This event showed that economic activists have included the possibility of reducing political risks in their investment decisions.
Historical crossing of the 5 million mark
Tuesday, however, was a historic record day. With a growth of more than 120,000 units, the total index of the stock market crossed the 5 million unit mark for the first time and was in the range of 5,100,000 units. This level is considered one of the most important milestones in the history of Iran’s capital market.
However, on the same day, signs of caution were also seen in the behavior of traders. After several days of consecutive growth, some investors began to recognize profits and the speed of cash flow decreased slightly compared to the previous days. Despite this, demand still outstripped supply and the market was able to establish a new record.
Wednesday; The end of shopping queues and the beginning of balance
The last trading day of the week marked a different atmosphere. On Wednesday, after a few days of heavy rally and extensive buying queues, the market entered a more balanced phase.
The total index stabilized with a growth of about 50 thousand units at the historical level of 5 million and 151 thousand units, but its growth rate decreased compared to the previous days.
On this day, the equal weight index experienced only a limited growth, and this showed that the upward movement of small symbols has stopped to some extent. Also, the market was no longer uniformly green, and only about half of the symbols traded in positive territory.
Analysts see this change in behavior as a sign of increased caution among traders and a natural market correction after a rapid rise. However, the transaction statistics still indicate the presence of liquidity in the market. The value of small transactions reached more than 36 thousand billion tomans and the volume of transactions was about 89 billion shares. Although more limited, but still positive, the entry of real money also showed that funds have not yet left the market.
The market still has the opportunity to break records
In this connection, Peyman Molavi, an economist and capital market analyst, believes that one of the most important factors in the low growth of the stock market this week was the reduction of the risk of war and political tensions.
According to him, professional investors have decided to enter the market by considering macroeconomic indicators such as high liquidity growth, monetary base increase and high inflation.
Molvi explained that the growth of liquidity above 44% and the growth of the monetary base of more than 55%, along with point-to-point inflation above 80%, shows that assets in the Iranian economy are subject to price increases, and this issue has caused professional investors to allocate part of their assets to the stock market.
This economist emphasized: Despite all the record-breaking events of the stock market this week, the market is still far from the records recorded until 2019, and this shows that it is possible to witness growth beyond the current state of the market.
He announced: Investors do not invest all their assets in the stock market, and the capital market is a specialized market with risks, and entering it should be done with knowledge and capital management.
According to Molavi, many investors still keep part of their assets in markets such as gold, currency or real estate and enter the stock market gradually and with risk management.
This analyst believes that if political agreements lead to the improvement of economic growth and the entry of capital into Iran’s economy, the stock market can continue its upward trend. On the other hand, the occurrence of political or economic shocks can change the course of the market and create new fluctuations.
Tehran Stock Exchange is now at a critical point after recording one of its most historic weeks. On the one hand, the influx of liquidity and improved expectations can keep the market growth engine running, and on the other hand, the strong dependence of the market environment on political and economic developments shows that the path forward of the stock market is still tied to news and macro decisions.
However, what happened in the last week of June had a clear message for economic activists: by changing expectations and reducing political risks, the capital market can once again become one of the most important destinations for attracting capital in Iran’s economy.
