PARAMARIBO — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed the Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) for Suriname. The assessment shows that economic activity in the non-natural resources sector remains robust, supported by an estimated growth of 4.4 percent in 2025. Nevertheless, the country faces persistent inflation and gold production is lagging behind expectations. The fund emphasizes the need to strengthen institutional frameworks in view of expected oil revenues from 2028.
Suriname’s economic indicators show a mixed picture in the second half of 2025. While the non-mining sector showed resilience, gold production disappointed in the second half of the year. An accommodative monetary and fiscal policy in the first half of 2025 has resulted in annual inflation rising to around 11 percent in recent months. Although monthly inflation fell to 0.4 percent in March 2026, increased global energy prices and the aftermath of previous budget overruns are creating persistent inflationary pressures. Inflation is not expected to return to one decimal place until 2027.
Budget results and deficits
Thanks to expenditure control and higher income from the mineral and non-mineral sector in the second half of the year, the primary balance in 2025 amounted to 1.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), excluding the recapitalization of the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS). This means that the previous cash buffers have been partly restored. The downside of the economic dynamics is the current account deficit, which will rise to 53 percent of GDP in 2025. This shortage is mainly caused by large-scale imports for oil projects and increased profit repatriation by gold companies.
Suriname’s capacity to meet its financial obligations to the IMF is assessed as adequate by the fund. This comfortable outlook is due to the fact that the peak in debt repayments will not occur until after the planned start of large-scale oil production in 2028.
Monetary policy and reforms
The IMF advises the authorities to tighten monetary policy. According to the fund, the current policy is too broad and the CBvS should more actively remove excess liquidity from the market, regardless of the costs associated with open market operations. Introducing a new monetary policy framework, centered on short-term interest rates, is considered necessary ahead of the expected oil boom. The intention to establish a monetary policy committee is welcomed as a positive step.
Meanwhile, the pace of structural reforms has slowed. The implementation of the new budgetary framework is spread over a period of three years. The fund points out that operationalizing the sovereign wealth fund and establishing a five-year financial plan are essential for policy credibility. In addition, a rapid implementation of the procurement law and a revision of anti-corruption legislation are urged.
Future prospects from 2028
From the year 2028, the Surinamese economy is expected to receive a significant boost from the start of new oil production. This will not only increase government revenues and foreign exchange reserves, but also have moderate positive spillover effects on the non-oil sectors. The IMF recommends saving most of the additional income from the current high oil and gold prices, paying off debts and not spending it on inefficient energy subsidies or insufficiently planned projects.
Finally, the recent bond issuance provides additional liquidity and a signal of market confidence. The fund recommends using these resources cautiously to prevent the limited implementation capacity from leading to unproductive expenditure. According to the report, there remains ample opportunity to strengthen the social safety net, broaden the tax base and modernize the tax administration to better protect the vulnerable in society.
