- Switzerland says no to the SVP initiative, which called for a population cap of 10 million people by 2050.
- How fast is Switzerland growing now without such a border?
- One thing is clear: Switzerland is currently growing strongly. When it comes to the question of how much longer, forecasts vary.
The Switzerland sent the 10 million initiative the SVP bachab. The party warned of one during the voting campaign “excessive immigration”from overcrowded trains, a lack of housing and increasing pressure on infrastructure and the landscape.
20 Minutes readers also shared these fears. «Switzerland has reached its breaking point. Limiting population growth is necessary in terms of social and infrastructure policy,” wrote reader HannsGlück.
That is why the SVP initiative demanded that the permanent resident population should not exceed 10 million by 2050. Now that the lid isn’t coming, the question becomes: When might this happen?
The answer to this varies depending on the forecast. One thing is clear: the population continues to grow. What remains unclear is how strong – and for how long. In fact, around 9 million people live in Switzerland today. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), Switzerland could reach the 10 million mark as early as 2040. The initiative was based on exactly this scenario. Other forecasts come to significantly different conclusions.
This article appeared in a similar form in April 2025. It was updated and republished on June 14th.
The European Statistical Office expects there to be 10 million in 2080
While the BFS expects comparatively strong growth, the European statistics office Eurostat expects a significantly slower development. According to his scenario, Switzerland would only reach the ten million mark towards the end of the century – around 2080. UN forecasts also assume that growth will weaken.
The reason: The population is growing today primarily due to immigration. At the same time, almost all European societies are aging. Countries from which many workers come to Switzerland today and account for 70 percent of immigration are likely to suffer more from a shortage of skilled workers in the future – and will try to keep their workforce in the country.
Demography expert Hendrik Budliger also points this out. He sits on the BFS expert commission for population scenarios. “What is often forgotten is that the older population in particular is growing,” says Budliger. The number of people of retirement age is increasing sharply, while the group of employed people is growing much more slowly.
“The working-age group is stagnating or will only grow by four percent by 2040.” He therefore does not assume that Switzerland will continue to grow indefinitely. Europe has been shrinking for a good five years, and sooner or later this will also affect Switzerland.
Low birth rates lead to an aging population
This is also due to the low birth rate. There are currently fewer children being born in Switzerland than ever before: in 2024, the average number of children per woman was 1.29.
There are differences between the population groups – on average, Swiss women have around 1.2 children, while women with foreign citizenship have around 1.5 children. But according to demographers, these values are also well below the reproduction rate of 2.1 that would be necessary for the population to remain stable without immigration.
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Due to the age structure, economic experts also point out that Switzerland could remain dependent on immigration in the future. “An ever-decreasing proportion of people of working age is a major challenge for the economy and prosperity,” says Lukas Rühli from Avenir Suisse.
Fewer people in employment meant less added value. In order to compensate for this, either significantly higher productivity is needed – or measures such as a higher retirement age. From an economic perspective, young, well-educated immigrants are therefore important for the labor market.
SVP: “BFS has underestimated population development several times”
The SVP opposes this. For them, current immigration is already too high – regardless of when Switzerland reaches ten million inhabitants. Parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi points to a housing shortage, rising rents and overloaded infrastructure. “We have to act now,” he says. The party only partially trusts the official forecasts. The SVP argues that the BFS has underestimated population development several times in the past.
Whether Switzerland actually has ten million inhabitants in 2040 or only decades later depends on many factors: economic situation, migration, birth rate, labor market or geopolitical crises.
Christina Pirskanen (pir) has been working for 20 minutes since 2022. She has been deputy since January 2026. Head of the Politics Department.
Carolin Teufelberger (cat) has been working as an editor in the News, Business & Video Reports department for 20 minutes since 2024.
Melissa Greiter (mgr) has been working for 20 minutes since 2024. She has been an editor in the news, business and video reports department since February 2025.
