Football under degrees – Kommersant

Opening on Thursday, June 11, the World Cup stands out from all previous ones due to its gigantic scale, the eye-catching diversity of the participants, mixing giants and teams that until recently had not even dreamed of world championships and are perceived as exotic, as well as the abundance of different details and accompanying factors, which, it seems, can take on a much greater significance at the tournament in the USA, Canada and Mexico than they had before. In any case, taking a closer look at the weather forecast and calculating how many kilometers will have to be covered in painful travels across North America before reaching the final in more than a month will clearly not be amiss for those who want to get into it this time.

The World Cup, which opens with the match between the national teams of Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City, seems to be greeted in all corners of the planet with a mixture of insane curiosity and insane horror.

They are generated by the grandiose scale of the tournament, in comparison with which not only the previous one, held at the end of 2022 in a tiny spot in Qatar, but also those that before it, in 2014 and 2018, were hosted by Brazil and Russia, look compact. The territory of the current championship is three huge countries, an entire continent, 16 American, Canadian and Mexican cities scattered throughout it so that for the first time an experienced and nimble football fan, who, out of old habit, wanted to attend matches in different groups, in different locations, and then enjoy the playoffs to the fullest and live, trying to create a schedule that allows everything to be done in time, will feel Fedor Konyukhovwho plans to row across the ocean alone.

They are generated by the prices of tickets to championship games. Thanks to the “dynamic” principle invented by the International Football Federation (FIFA), they soared to such heights that dinner with dinner was included in the price by default. Lionel Messi And Cristiano Ronaldo.

They are generated by news about the work of immigration services in the United States, the state that hosts most of the championship matches. A leading Iraqi football player was mistaken for a terrorist and marinated at the airport for several hours. The best referee in Africa, a Somali, already appointed to officiate the matches, sent from Miami back with a legal visa.

They are generated by other quirks of the American authorities, who, for example, when deciding which meeting to devote to sexual minorities (the international LGBT movement is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation), for some reason settled on the match of Egypt against the Iranian team, which had already suffered so much due to geopolitics.

They, of course, are born from the composition of the World Cup participants, increased from 32 to 48 teams. The main football tournaments have always had a “carnival” flavor, they were always attended by unfamiliar teams, whom you wanted not so much to admire as to be moved by: nothing outstanding shines, but what fans, what nice pre-match rituals, what enthusiasm!

The general expansion of the format has resulted in the expansion, in fact, of this very category – to such a size that it is now comparable to the one where the grandees live. Teams of tiny Curacao and Cape Verde; the Uzbek and Jordanian teams making their debut at the world championship; not debuting, but the last time they played on it so long ago that no one will remember when, representatives of the DR Congo and Haiti…

“Carnival” in North America is no longer a tint, but something almost on a daily basis, almost routine, throwing one of the constants into the trash heap. Because no more “death groups”.

This influx of exotic football has completely destroyed them, an essential component of every World Cup. Apparently, along with the unshakable tradition that at every championship, even before the play-offs, one of the medal hunters is cut off.

In 2002, the Argentines were eliminated, in 2006 – the then exceptionally powerful Czechs, in 2010, 2014 and 2018 – the current title holders, the Italians, Spaniards and Germans, in 2022 – again the German national team in company with the Belgians. It is impossible to imagine that, say, such an embarrassment will happen to the German team even now, knowing that the opponents are footballers from Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador and Curacao, and for the playoffs it is not necessary to be in the top two – after the reform, third place in the quartet may well be enough.

A mix of curiosity and horror – this is also about a question that worries football fans before the World Cup usually more than others. What is the situation in the squad of medal hunters? Who has what prospects?

Everything seems to be not so difficult. The squad is about the same as usual. And the opinions about who is at the forefront of this squad are approximately the same among bookmakers, among experts, and among various computer programs like Opta. Of course, the Spaniards and the French are singled out, because it would be stupid not to single them out – their service records sparkling with the fresh shine of medals, no personnel flaws that hurt the eyes. Plus Lamin Yamal and Kylian Mbappe.

As a rule, they speak a little more cautiously about the Argentines, the Qatari triumphs, the British, the Brazilians, the Portuguese, and the Germans. Mathematician Joachim Clement, who came up with a model for determining the alignment, into which everything possible is integrated – from the position of the national team in the football classification to the population and volume of the country’s GDP, made a little splash, finally giving the gold to the Dutch who had been waiting for it. But they are also often mentioned – not exactly a shocking revelation.

The thing is that these assessments and forecasts, as in the discussion organized on the BBC before the start of the World Cup for seasoned analysts, all with vivid football biographies, with a bunch of performances for different teams, such as Alan Shearer, Olivier Giroud, Wayne Rooney, are always accompanied by reservations about the fact that the championship is too specific, a football terra incognita. There are too many nuances to keep everything in mind, to weigh everything carefully.

And it’s clear what we’re talking about. About such accompanying factors, which were previously looked at in passing, but which in North America, it seems, may indeed acquire a special role. Let’s say about the North American climate, which makes us remember terrible pictures of players on the verge of losing consciousness at last year’s Club World Championship in the USA and carefully study the weather forecast. So what do we have in the next few days in Texas? Lord, it’s 40 degrees hot. Poor English, Dutch and Argentinians. And in Atlanta? Almost the same. So no, and the Spaniards were out of luck. Maybe it’s cooler further north, in New York? Alas… And then, closer to July, it will apparently be even worse.

Or about the geography of the championship. There are even websites that calculate the distances that teams will have to cover at the championship. The Spanish team, in the most favorable case for it – if it reaches the playoffs from first place in the group – will fly 12.5 thousand km to the final. This is almost a day in the air. But there is also a trip from the training base to the airport, from the airport to the hotel. But the French have half the potential flying time. The group generally moves at a minimum – about 400 km in total.

And the International Association of Professional Footballers (FIFPro) published studies in which long flights are equivalent in terms of load to intense training sessions and combat matches, that is, they require a long recovery, like an hour and a half run under the scorching sun. And there is nowhere to take time for recovery, because the championship calendar has not become softer after the enlargement of the format. On the contrary, an extra play-off round was added. And the leaders of the teams aiming for awards are already exhausted from the hellish club season that ended a couple of weeks ago; some, like Yamal, are recovering from injuries.

And how can we measure the significance of all these nuances? Strictly speaking, there are no precedents. And the brain, trying to integrate them into reasoning about chances and prospects, melts so much that someone, as, however, often happens on the eve of the World Championships, finds solace not in the rational, but in the irrational. And in this area, surprising facts are being discovered.

It’s hard to believe, but never since the advent of the FIFA rankings in the early 1990s has World Cup gold been won by the team ranked first.

Moreover, they suffered failures, including those that they wanted to reward with gold in advance: Brazilian in 1998 and 2006, Spanish in 2014. So the French team is still doomed, despite the logistical luck? Or Argentinean? The French are at the top of the list official rankingwhich has not changed since April, and the Argentines are in live versions.

And where can one go from one more sign? The Qatar World Cup, as you know, has been postponed until the end of the year. And at the three championships that preceded it – in South Africa, Brazil and Russia, with standard summer dates – the title was taken by the teams that entered the fight on June 16. Magic date. The teams of France and Argentina will start at the North American Championship on the 16th. And no one else from the grandees. In short, even here there are reservations.

Alexey Dospehov