What is at stake in the election?
European integration. Kosovo is applying for EU membership in 2022, but the process remains slow. Some EU countries, including Spain, Greece, Romania and Slovakia, do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, complicating the prospect of membership.
Relations with the West. Osmani claims that Kurti’s rule has led to a cooling of relations with both Brussels and Washington. She accuses the prime minister of having lost trust among key partners.
The internal institutional crisis. Parliament’s failure to elect a new president in April led to the snap vote. Osmani claims that Kurti seeks to concentrate power and weaken the presidential institution.
Why did relations with the EU deteriorate?
The key moment was the crisis in the predominantly Serb northern municipalities in 2023. Kurti’s government appointed ethnic Albanian mayors after disputed elections, leading to tensions and clashes. Western partners accused Pristina of escalating the situation.
Instead of progress towards the EU, Kosovo was sanctioned by Brussels by freezing part of the financial aid. The restrictions were lifted only after new local elections were held.
The appointment of ethnic Albanian mayors in Serbian municipalities has led to tension, violence and criticism from the EU and the US. The consequence was sanctions and the freezing of part of the European aid.
What does Osmani say?
The former president insists that Kosovo should be more closely tied to the US and that Washington should play a more active role in the dialogue with Serbia. According to her, the negotiations were more successful when the US was directly involved.
She also links Kosovo’s future with a firmer positioning in Euro-Atlantic structures and criticizes the policy of confrontation towards Western partners.
What are Kurti’s chances?
Despite the criticism, analysts expect the ruling Vetevendosie party to once again win the most seats in parliament. This means Kurti is likely to remain Prime Minister.
The more complicated issue is the presidency. The election of the head of state requires a two-thirds majority in parliament, which no party is expected to have. This implies difficult coalition negotiations and the risk of a new institutional blockade.
What’s next?
A likely new term for Kurti. If the “Vetevendossie” remains the first force, Kurti may continue to rule as prime minister. The lack of a two-thirds majority makes the election of a new head of state uncertain and likely to require complex coalition deals.
However, there is a risk of a new political blockade. If the talks fail, Kosovo could once again face an institutional crisis and a delay in reforms.
The wider context
The main problem facing Kosovo remains the combination of internal political instability and incomplete international recognition. Even with strong pro-European rhetoric, the country can hardly advance towards the EU and NATO without sustained cooperation with key Western partners and a more predictable domestic political environment.
The election will probably not solve all these problems, but it will show whether Kosovo will continue the course of a more confrontational policy towards its external partners or seek closer coordination with Brussels and Washington.
