The Nicaraguan oil bill rose by 70.3 million dollars (68.3%), between February and March 2026. This increase is, so far, the most direct indicator of the cost to Nicaragua of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran, which began on February 28 of this year. The conflict disrupts the global supply chain for crude oil and its derivatives, and keeps the global economy in check.
In February, the oil bill was 102.9 million dollars and by the following March it increased to 173.2 million dollars, according to official statistics.
According to the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN), the Nicaraguan oil bill has four components:
- Crude oil.
- Fuels.
- Lubricants.
- Electrical energy.
Although the combined data shows a cost overrun of 68.3%, that was not the worst of the increases. Seen by segments, the negative record goes to the fuel item, with 102.7%. Electric energy grew 93.7%; lubricants increased by 42.3%, while crude oil multiplied by 18.0%.
The four segments are separated because they are markets with different suppliers and particular specifications for each one. Hence, it is illustrative to see the behavior of fuel prices separately, where there are even greater increases.
The bill for fuel oil, which is used to generate electricity, grew by 185%; diesel, at 174.8%; regular gasoline at 41.1%, and super gasoline at 28.3%.
Inflation risk persists
While the world sees how the days accumulate without a solution to the hydrocarbon supply crisis caused by the war in the Middle East, countries like Nicaragua face a double problem. The increase in its oil bill and the risk that it will not be possible to acquire all the crude oil and derivatives required, given the probable depletion of world reserves.
Although the policy of the regime keep frozen the prices allows consumers to buy fuels at the same (high) cost as in recent years, there are other ways in which things can become more expensive in the country. The most pressing are the increases in the costs of electricity generation, as well as the increase in the cost of industrial and agro-industrial production, given the increase in the price of various inputs.
To a lesser extent, these last two elements could also put upward pressure on the cost of transportation.
Data from the Central Bank show that, until February 28, 2026, the country seemed headed for a fifth consecutive year of decline in its total oil bill. After reaching its peak in 2022, with 1,768 million dollars, that amount continued to decrease year after year, until closing 2025 at 1,430 million. A saving of 19.1% between both moments of measurement.
Until before the war broke out, the data for January and February allowed us to calculate, in a very preliminary way, that the bill could also decrease in 2026. Purchases in both months were slightly above one hundred million dollars in each month. 102.8 million in January, and 102.9 million in February. The average price was 87.5 dollars per barrel.
In March, purchases rose to $173.2 million, while the average price rose to $93.5 per barrel.
Nicaraguan oil bill continues to rise
The data for the first two months offered reasons to assume that the country’s total spending would be below 1.3 billion dollars, allowing spending on hydrocarbons to be further reduced. The bill for the first quarter of 2024 was the highest in the quarterly series of that year: $415.6 million.
From then on, the bill decreased in the second, third and fourth quarters, to close the year with a cumulative 1558.2 million. Then, in 2025, the first quarter bill was the lowest of all, at 331.9 million. Although it rose in the second and third quarters, it moderated in the fourth (355.2 million), to close the year at 1430.2 million.
All of these amounts include the cost of crude oil, that of fuels and lubricants (this value represents more than half of the annual bill), and that of electrical energy that the country imports in increasing amounts.
When the calendar marks the close of the fifth month of the year—and the third since the start of the war—it is evident that all that has already changed. At the time of the war, the price of a barrel of WTI oil, which is used as a reference on the American continent, It was trading below $70.. In just the first week it broke the barrier of $90 per barrel.
The barrier of 100 dollars—and also that of 110—was broken in a very short time, imposing an onerous overload on the balance of payments of countries that import oil and derivatives. Like Nicaragua.
It has been several years since Venezuela stopped being the supplier of oil and fuel that Nicaragua imports. In particular, starting in 2019, with the imposition of US sanctions on the dynasty’s oil business, the country began to source from other suppliers. Sometimes from Mexico. Sometimes from Ecuador. Many, many times, from the United States.
